Gold Wins by Default

The Japanese Yen was the biggest winner last week, surging despite negative fundamentals like the 0.4% decline in preliminary Japanese GDP for the fourth quarter. Despite all the gloom and doom, the Japanese yen has not only held its own against the strong US dollar, but posted a superb rally. How is this possible? Well, the Yen simply maximized its traditional safe-haven status, and global financial instability drove investors away from risk assets towards safer waters like the Japanese currency. The recent rush to safe assets will not last indefinitely however, and weak fundamentals will not fade away for this island country. Losers last week include, the Swiss Franc which experienced a retracement from the previous week’s gains.

On of this week’s major themes is the fact that an increasing number of central banks are employing negative rates – Europe, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland and now Japan. What does it mean? And who’s next?

Well, negative rates signal slight desperation on the part of central banks. It suggests that traditional policy options were not effective and that new drastic measures are needed. Rates below zero also mean that there is minimal expectation of inflation and little to no anticipation of near-term economic rebound. How well negative interest rates have worked in the past is debatable, but most economists think they've had some success in Europe. Lowering rates has helped stem the appreciation of the Swedish and Swiss currencies and significantly pushed down the value of the Euro against the Dollar, which was a nice boost for exporters in the Euro Zone.

Well, negative rates signal slight desperation on the part of central banks. It suggests that traditional policy options were not effective and that new drastic measures are needed. Rates below zero also mean that there is minimal expectation of inflation and little to no anticipation of near-term economic rebound. How well negative interest rates have worked in the past is debatable, but most economists think they've had some success in Europe. Lowering rates has helped stem the appreciation of the Swedish and Swiss currencies and significantly pushed down the value of the Euro.

As for who is next, The Bank of Canada is the most likely of the major central banks to opt for negative rates this year, claims Marc Chandler, head of FX Markets Strategy at BBH. "I am not saying the Bank of Canada will, but that is the most likely candidate of those that are not there yet…” Canada's current overnight rate is already very low and the BOC has prepared markets for the possibility of negative rates by alluding to how they might work as a policy tool. Back in December, Stephen Poloz said the lower bound for the policy interest rate was around minus 0.5%. The bank will update its rate target on March 9.

In the US, it remains an open question whether the Fed will adopt negative rates in this environment. They seem to be enjoying a stronger economy than most, but everyone’s eyes will be on the data in coming weeks to see if it will warrant a drastic policy shift at the FOMC meeting in March. A change in economic circumstances could put negative rates “on the table” in the U.S., but unless the economy weakens significantly many analysts expect Fed policymakers to slowly raise rates, and not cut them. “I do not see this as anything but very low risk in the U.S." states Chandler.

In theory, rates below zero should reduce borrowing costs for companies and households, driving demand for loans. In practice however, a bank charging customers to hold their money, may cause cash to go under the mattress, or perhaps somewhere shinier...

It seems that the threat of negative rates across the globe has made Gold one of this year’s best investments. Negative rates, in simple terms, means that depositing cash will leave investors with less than when they started, making traditional assets such as gold more appealing. “Leave a million dollars with a bank, and in a year, you get only something like $990,000 back,” said Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. “I would rather want to own some solid currency, in other words gold.” All in all, when you have negative rates, something with a 0% yield becomes a high-yield asset and is therefore a nice place to park your money

Water Cooler Talk

　

The GBP snapped a three week losing streak on its way to the top of the leader board. Not even a ratings downgrade from stable to negative in the UK’s credit rating by Standard & Poor's over the UK’s plans for an EU referendum was able to put a dent in sterling’s performance. The loser for the week was the NZD as it was crushed by the central bank’s 25 bp interest rate cut and its dovish insistence that further easing may be needed if future economic data is weak.

On to a topic we’ve discussed on and off over the past 12 months, currency wars. We know that there are people who doubt that a currency war is underway, but it appears that there are two types of currency wars going on right now based on media reports. First, last week began with comments about the USD being too strong that were attributed to President Obama by an unnamed French official. The comments were later denied by the President. Two days later, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda suggested that the yen was unlikely to fall further on a real effective exchange rate basis because it was already "very weak". Yes we know that the purpose of the currency war is to weaken your currency in order to steal export market share from other countries and with this in mind, Kuroda’s.

comments were bullish for the yen, not bearish. Let’s keep in mind that he can afford to say this considering that the yen has moved from the 78 level to the 126 level in about 2.5 years, which works out to be about a 60% decline in the yen versus the USD. Two days later it was German Chancellor Merkel’s turn. She suggested that too strong of a euro would impede reforms in Spain and Ireland. Yup, no currency war going on here. Move along!

Second, the other currency war underway is the move away from U.S. hegemony (USD as a reserve currency). This can be seen by the setting up of parallel institutions like the IMF and World Bank led by China (BRICS Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank), and the accumulation of gold reserves by China and other central banks; and gold repatriation by certain western governments to bring home their gold stored outside their home country in places like New York and London.

These are interesting times indeed. Next week, keep an eye on the FOMC meeting, Greece, Deutsche Bank, and the Ukraine.

Greece Edges Closer to Default

 

Original article Found Here

The latest attempt to end the deadlock between Greek and EU officials in Brussels failed on Sunday. The negotiations centered on whether Greece would meet the EU's demands to make spending cuts worth €2bn (£1.44bn) in order to secure a deal that will unlock vital bailout funds. "European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker made a last attempt this weekend to find, via personal representatives and in close liaison with Commission, ECB and IMF experts, a solution with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras that would allow for a positive assessment in time for the Eurogroup on Thursday 18 June," the Commission said.

"While some progress was made, the talks did not succeed as there remains a significant gap between the plans of the Greek authorities and the joint requirements of Commission, ECB and IMF in the order of 0.5-1 percentage points of GDP, or the equivalent of up to 2 billion of permanent fiscal measures on an annual basis." The Commission said that Greece's proposals were "incomplete", which made negotiation difficult. The talks fell apart after just 45 minutes.

The failure to reach a deal on Sunday leaves a final decision on a possible default to Eurozone finance ministers. This meeting will take place on Thursday, the European Commission said, and will be a last chance saloon for Greece if it wants to avoid a default. A Commission spokesman said: "President Juncker remains convinced that with stronger reform efforts on the Greek side and political will on all sides, a solution can still be found before the end of the month."

 

 

The IMF's chief economist Olivier Blanchard wrote in his blog on Sunday that, "Greek citizens, through a democratic process, have indicated that there were some reforms they do not want. We believe that

these reforms are needed, and that, absent these reforms, Greece will not be able to sustain steady growth, and the burden of debt will become even higher." Pensions remain a sticking point for Greece, with Athens refusing to give in to further cuts. "These are tough choices, and tough commitments to be made on both sides," said Mr Blanchard.

Below are the key hurdles Greece faces in the coming weeks:

June 15: European Central Bank president Mario Draghi to give quarterly testimony at European Parliament; Greece likely to figure.

June 16: Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann visits Athens

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras scheduled to fly to Russia - expected to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin at St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, June 18-20.

June 17: Governing Council of the ECB non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt

Greece to sell 1 billion euros of 3-month T-bills.

June 18: Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg

European Council President Donald Tusk has signaled this might be the day when the currency bloc decides Greek "game is over". General Council meeting of the ECB in Frankfurt.

June 19: EU finance ministers meeting. Greece needs to refinance 1.6 billion euros in T-bills. Greece needs to service about 85 million euros in interest on bonds held by the ECB.

June 25-26: European Union leaders Summit in Brussels.

June 30: Greece’s euro-area-backed bailout extension expires

Total payments of more than 1.5 billion euros to the IMF come due, after decision to bundle tranches due earlier in June

July: About 1 billion euros in interest payments due

Bulk of amortization and interest payments due on July 18-20 on bonds held by the ECB

July 1: Governing Council of the ECB non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt

July 8: Greece to sell 26-week bills

July 10: Greece needs to refinance 2 billion euros in T-bills

July 13: IMF loans repayment totaling about 450 million euros due. Eurogroup meeting

July 14: Greece needs to repay 11.67 billion Japanese yen (about $93 million) in yen loans

July 16: Governing Council monetary policy meeting of the ECB in Frankfurt

July 17: Greece needs to pay about 71 million euros in interest on the 3-yr bond it sold in 2014

Greece needs to refinance 1 billion euros in T-bills

July 20: Greece needs to repay about 3.5 billion euros in bond redemptions; bonds held by the ECB

July 31: Moody’s due to review Greece’s sovereign debt

August: 600 million euros in interest payments

Includes an 80 million euro payment to the European Financial Stability Facility

August 1: Interest on IMF loans totaling about 175 million euros; payment due by August 5

August 5: Governing Council of the ECB non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt. Greece to sell 26-week bills

August 7: Greece needs to refinance 1 billion euros in T-bills

August 14: Greece needs to refinance 1.4 billion euros in T-bills

August 20: Greece needs to repay about 3.2 billion euros in bond redemptions; bonds held by the ECB

Dinosaurs!

This has nothing to do with FX or the economy in general, but it’s information that we think will make you feel like Cliff Clavin (if that’s your life aspiration) and the most popular person in your office today.

Jurassic World just had a massive opening weekend where box office receipts topped $511 million worldwide. In case you’re having a little trouble grasping this number, let’s put it into perspective.

According to World Bank figures from 2013, Jurassic World’s total revenue from June 12 to 14 is greater than the annual GDP of the following countries:

1. Tonga — $466.3 million

2. Federated States of Micronesia — $316.2 million

3. Sao Tome and Principe — $310.7 million

4. Palau — $247 million

5. Marshall Islands — $190.9 million

6. Kiribati — $168.95 million

7. Tuvalu — $38.3 million

  

The Dust Has Settled

 

 

Canadian employment surged last month, as the economy added the most jobs in over seven months. The best part of this news is that employment came everywhere, which is exactly what policymakers like to see. Canada recorded a net gain of almost 59K jobs while analysts had been expecting a net gain of a 10K with the full- and part-time almost evenly split (31K and 28K respectively). The unemployment rate stayed the same at 6.8%. After experiencing dramatic declines last year due to plummeting commodity prices, employment in Canada finally looks to be trending higher. More good news is that manufacturing jobs outside the commodity sector buoyed the employment report.

 

According to Bloomberg, "Canada added six times as many jobs in May as economists predicted on the biggest manufacturing gain in four years -- the kind of progress the central bank says is needed to foster a

recovery from the shock of lower oil prices. The strength counters other recent setbacks – shrinking Q1 output, record trade deficits, slow inflation – and supports Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz's view that momentum is shifting to non-energy companies as the oil industry cuts investment and jobs."

 

It’s important to note that some of gains in May were driven by self-employment, but paid employment was still up by a healthy positive 37K. CAD bulls would suggest that last week’s jobs figures is a sign that the Canadian economy is shrugging off any set-back from its first quarter. On the flipside, aside from the rate divergence argument, USD bulls will also lean on how erratic Canadian jobs report can be. If you’re someone who manages your company’s USDCAD exposure, it’s important to remember that ‘one’ headline print is not a trend, so do not look at one report in isolation.

 

In addition, while the labor market added jobs, consumer spending also rose. The Wall Street Journal reports that the retail sales figure came in at an annual pace of 3.1%, above the previous month's reading of 2.5%. After falling alongside the weakening labor market, consumer spending has recently begun to rise. Auto sales contributed the most to the consumer spending measure. The WSJ states, "The largest gain in dollar terms was a 1.5% increase, to C$10.24 billion, in auto-related goods, led by a 1.8% sales gain at new-car dealers. Excluding the auto component, Canadian retail sales rose 0.5% to C$32.22 billion."

However, despite that fact that the labor market and household spending are improving, productivity of the labor force is falling. In Q1, the productivity figure came in at a quarterly contraction of -0.1%, which is down from Q4 2014 revised reading of 0.3%, while also missing estimates for 0.2%. In recent months, the productivity measure has leveled off, seen below. As productivity declines, economic growth will continue to have trouble rebounding higher.

Canada's economy remains weak, but is steadily improving. Jobs are being added to non-energy related sectors which is aiding consumer spending measures. Increased jobs, however, are not translating to economic activity as much as it could, due to lower labor force productivity. Ultimately, the Canadian economy is improving, which should technically lead the loonie to higher ground in coming months.

 

 

From the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the trend measure of housing starts in Canada was 181,231 units in May compared to 179,524 in April, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts. "The small increase in the trend was primarily driven by higher multiple starts in Ontario, the Atlantic region, and Québec. Despite month-to-month variation in multiple starts, CMHC expects builders will continue to focus on managing inventory of completed but unsold units — inventory that is still above historical average," said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist. "CMHC also forecasts slight moderation in housing starts in 2015 and 2016, reflecting a slowdown in housing market activity in oil-producing provinces that will partly be offset by increased activity in provinces that are seeing the positive impacts of low oil prices."

 

From a report for April, Statistics Canada demonstrates that contractors took out $7.8 billion worth of building permits in April, up 11.6% from the previous month and a second consecutive monthly advance. The gain in April stemmed from higher construction intentions in both the residential and non-residential sectors in Ontario.

In the non-residential sector, the value of permits rose 30.2% to $3.3 billion in April, following a 24.8% gain in March. Increases were posted in three provinces, led by Ontario, followed by Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador. British Columbia and Quebec registered the largest declines in construction intentions for non-residential buildings. Construction intentions for residential buildings increased 1.2% to $4.5 billion, a third consecutive monthly advance. Gains were noted in Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador. The largest decrease occurred in British Columbia, which had posted a notable increase the previous month.

USD in Focus

 

　

Last week we mused that because the Swiss franc was able to nudge out the USD as the best weekly performer that it foreshadowed a brief pause in the USD rally. And that’s exactly what transpired; the USD corrected its strong two week rally with a four day losing streak until Friday’s strong U.S. jobs data arrested its decline. The outliers for the week were the euro, NZD, and the yen. The euro was the top performer last week as the long German bund and short euro hedge position reared its ugly head again (the last time it happened was late April and early May). The NZD sold off to a low dating back to August 2010 as the market is pricing in a 50% chance of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on June 10. Meanwhile, the yen also reached a multi-year low dating back to November 2002 as the strong May U.S. nonfarm employment report caused the December Fed funds contract to fully price in one rate hike by the Fed this year.

 

Euro in Focus
 

The price action in the Euro was very volatile last week. It moved from a low of 1.0880 on Monday to a high of 1.1380 on Thursday, that’s a 5 euro move and it was all powered by the unwinding of the long German bund and short euro hedge trade. International holders of German bunds decided to sell their bonds and to buy back their euro hedges, which basically caused that massive short squeeze in which the euro rallied by five big figures.

More important is why the bonds are being sold. Two reasons, the first is that back to back Eurozone inflation of 0.0% for April and 0.3% for May demonstrate that deflationary pressures are easing, which in turn are causing investors to question whether the ECB will continue its newly minted QE program. The second reason is fear that the Greek crisis could unravel. Greece is refusing to maintain the status quo of pretend and extend – that is to say that they are not looking to have creditors loan them more bailout funds in order for them to service debt. The Greeks want debt relief. The trigger point last week was that Greece delayed a key debt payment to the International Monetary Fund due on Friday offering instead to bundle four payments due in June into a single 1.6 billion euro (£1.16 billion) lump sum which is now due on June 30. This might be a sign that Greece may be choosing to preserve what's left of its war chest if talks don't improve and default.

JPY in Focus

 

The other move that caught our eye last week was that of the JPYUSD to a multi-year low at the 125 level. The decline in the yen suggests that traders are once again speculating that the Japanese currency will continue lower and, indeed, the recent CFTC Commitment of Traders data shows a dramatic increase in bearish bets on the JPY (bullish JPYUSD positions). In the past two weeks, net yen shorts have risen to 86K from 22K. This week’s revision to Japan’s initial Q1 GDP estimate will be the key market moving event. Revisions have been consistently higher than the original estimate so if it also happens on this one it could pour cold water on those looking for more QE which could induce a period of short covering.

 

 

   

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Monday, Dec. 22nd, 2014

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1630 - 1.1635 (AS AT 8:20AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1579	to	1.1615
	Europe:	1.1600	to	1.1637
	North America:	1.1617	to	1.1646

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1465	1.1567	1.1667	1.1700

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. existing home sales: 4.93 million (exp. 5.25 million)

-U.S. existing homes sales % change: -6.1% (exp. 0.8%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Dec. 23	GDP	Durable goods, GDP, consumer sentiment
Dec. 24		Initial jobless claims
Dec. 25	Christmas Day	Christmas Day
Dec. 26	Boxing Day

On Friday, USDCAD traded from 1.1567 up to 1.1633 before easing back to 1.1600. Canadian Inflation was softer than expected while retail sales were better than expected. Overnight, the pairing dipped to 1.1579 before climbing to session highs at 1.1646 this morning. In the absence of any key economic data, the CAD appears to be tracking oil which has fallen $3 from its overnight high of $58.50. Currently, the TSX is down 0.13% while the DJIA is up 0.43%. EURCAD is up 0.50% trading between 1.4163 and 1.4279. GBPCAD is up 0.35% trading between 1.8090 and 1.8198. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.00967 and 0.00972. Gold is down 0.79% trading between $1,185 and $1,203USD/oz, silver is down 0.20% trading between $15.64 and $16.16USD/oz, while oil is down 2.30%, trading between $55.49 and $58.50.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Thursday, Dec. 18th, 2014

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1605 - 1.1610 (AS AT 8:52AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1626	to	1.1648
	Europe:	1.1569	to	1.1647
	North America:	1.1582	to	1.1630

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1465	1.1600	1.1667	1.1700

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. Fed interest rate decision:

 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20141217a.html

-U.S. initial jobless claims: 289k (exp. 295k)

-U.S. Markit Services PMI: 53.6 (exp. 56.9)

-U.S. leading indicators: 0.6 (exp. 0.5)

-U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey: 24.5 (exp. 27.0)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Dec. 19	CPI, retail sales

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.1623 up to 1.1672 before falling to 1.1560 after the 11:00am Fed announcement. The move lower was short-lived and USDCAD climbed back to hold near 1.1640 for the balance of the session. The Fed stated that “it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. The Committee sees this guidance as consistent with its previous statement that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program.” This gave the markets confidence and the USD was the best performing currency after the Fed statement and both equity markets and oil gained on the news. Overnight, global markets followed suit with the Japanese Nikkei up 2.32% and the EURSTOXX50 up 3.33%. USDCAD dropped to 1.1569 as oil continued to climb. The pairing opened this morning at 1.1582 and climbed to 1.1630 as oil pared its gains. USDCAD has since fallen to 1.1600. Tomorrow, Canadian core inflation is expected to tick up from 2.3% to 2.4%y/y. Retail sales are expected to decline by 0.2% after having gained 0.8% previously.

Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 0.10% and 1.41% respectively. EURCAD is down 0.50% trading between 1.4236 and 1.4377. GBPCAD is up 0.40% trading between 1.8095 and 1.8202. JPYCAD is down 0.40% trading between 0.00973 and 0.00982. Gold is up 0.54% trading between $1,189 and $1,214USD/oz, silver is down 0.14% trading between $15.72 and $16.23USD/oz, while oil is down 1.19%, trading between $55.09 and $59.01.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

VBCE Weekly Market FX Update - November 17-21 2014

November 17-21 2014

 

 

It was very quiet in the currency markets last week until Friday that is, when it received a double shot of adrenaline. The first shot was by ECB President, Mario Draghi, speaking at a banking conference in Frankfurt. Draghi strongly signaled that he and his colleagues were preparing a new round of powerful monetary stimulus to jolt the flagging Eurozone economy. Draghi said the ECB would “do what we must to raise inflation and inflation expectations as fast as possible.” If the bank’s current policies, which include some purchases of corporate bonds, do not end the threat, Mr. Draghi said, “we would step up the pressure and broaden even more the channels through which we intervene, by altering accordingly the size, pace and composition of our purchases.” This speech was reminiscent of a speech Mr. Draghi gave in July 2012, when he said the central bank “is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. In a nutshell, Draghi and the ECB are ready to rev up QE at its next meeting on December 4th.

 

The second shot of adrenaline came from an unlikely source, the Chinese central bank. It was as if all the central bankers were all in one room and the Chinese jumped up and down yelling it’s my turn, it’s my turn. Yes it is your turn, what kind of monetary Kool-Aid would you like to offer? And the Chinese decided to cut interest rates. This was the first cut in China’s benchmark interest rates in two and a half years, which must mean that things have really deteriorated in China. We say this because the Chinese have resisted cutting rates in the last couple of years in favour of reducing the

required reserve ratio on banks. China’s move along with Draghi’s signal helped spur a rally in globa equity markets, oil, gold, the USD, and the CAD.

 

The US dollar index was able to break above the downward sloping trend line and managed to rally to a four and half-year peak, which we have outlined on the monthly chart. As you can see from the long- term chart, the US dollar index is in a midst of a superb bull market with the path of least resistance continues to be higher. This bull market is showing no signs of slowing so buying the dibs will continue to be the best strategy until it’s not.

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Wednesday, Nov. 26th, 2014

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1235 - 1.1240 (AS AT 8:28AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1250	to	1.1271
	Europe:	1.1253	to	1.1298
	North America:	1.1230	to	1.1270

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1192	1.1230	1.1300	1.1370

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. core personal consumption expenditure price index y/y: 1.6% (prev. 1.5%)

-U.S. durable goods: 0.4% (exp. -0.6%) ex transportation: -0.9% (exp. 0.5%)

-U.S. initial jobless claims: 313k (exp. 288k)

-U.S. Chicago purchasing managers index: 60.8 (exp. 63.0)

-U.S. consumer sentiment index: 88.8 (exp. 90.0)

-U.S. personal income: 0.2% (exp. 0.4%) personal spending: 0.2% (exp. 0.3%)

-U.S. new home sales: 0.458m (exp. 0.472m) % change m/m: 0.7% (prev. 0.4%)

-U.S. pending home sales m/m: -1.1% (exp. 0.5%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Nov. 27	Current account (Q3)
Nov. 28	GDP, raw material price index

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.1278 up to 1.1316 before falling to 1.1232. The pairing bounced to 1.1260 and held in a 1.1240 – 1.1255 range for the balance of the session. Canadian retail sales were better than expected while the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) mentioned in its annual economic outlook that the Bank of Canada should raise its key rate in May of 2015. For the past several months, the Bank of Canada has downplayed the need to raise rates attributing recent inflation to transitory factors. Overnight, USDCAD traded from 1.1250 up to 1.1298 before falling back to test 1.1230 this morning. This level has held for the 2ND straight day followed by a minor bounce to 1.1240. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down 0.25% and 0.08% respectively. EURCAD is unchanged trading between 1.4020 and 1.4088. GBPCAD is up 0.30% trading between 1.7678 and 1.7787. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.00954 and 0.00959. Gold is down 0.22% trading between $1,195 and $1,201USD/oz, silver is up 0.26% trading between $16.55 and $16.69USD/oz, while oil is down 0.47%, trading between $73.33 and $74.42.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

Please contact the VBCE trading desk at 604-685-1008 for more information on our foreign exchange and wire payment services. Updates by stevebrown@vbce.ca 

The information contained in this report has been compiled by our VBCE traders from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by VBCE as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness.  All opinions and estimates contained in this report constitute VBCE’s judgment as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility.  Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice.  This material is prepared for general circulation to clients and has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it.  This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any currency or precious metals.  Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.  To the full extent permitted by law neither VBCE nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein.  No matter contained in this document may be reproduced or copied by any means without the prior consent of VBCE.

 

Copyright © VBCE, All rights reserved.

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