USDCAD tests 1.20 and falls to 1.1926 as oil pares losses

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, Jan. 13th, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1940 - 1.1945 (AS AT 9:00AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1943	to	1.1978
	Europe:	1.1956	to	1.1993
	North America:	1.1926	to	1.1983

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1671	1.1800	1.1984	1.2200

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. IBD/TIPP economic optimism index: 51.5 (exp. 48.9)

-U.S. JOLTS job openings: 4.97 million (exp. 4.863 million)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan. 14		Retail sales, business inventories
Jan. 15		Initial jobless claims, producer price index
Jan. 16		CPI, industrial production, consumer sentiment

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.1836 up to 1.1974 – a new 5.5 year high, breaking above Friday’s high of 1.1890. Oil prices dropped by nearly 5% yesterday and for USDCAD, there has been very little in the way of technical resistance between 1.1600 and the psychological level of 1.20. Overnight during the Asian session, the pairing eased to 1.1943 as the USD broadly weakened. Data out of China showed that exports grew faster than expected (9.9% vs. 6.8%) while imports declined less than expected (-2.3% vs. -7.4%). The trend reversed during the London session with USDCAD attempting a test of 1.20. The pairing briefly broke through 1.1984 resistance peaking at 1.1993 as oil touched $44.23. The move was short-lived with oil bouncing to $46.37 and USDCAD falling back to 1.1926. The pairing has since bounced to 1.1950. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 0.18% and 1.10% respectively. EURCAD is down 0.70% trading between 1.4037 and 1.4190. GBPCAD is down 0.35% trading between 1.8069 and 1.8174. JPYCAD is down 0.15% trading between 0.01006 and 0.01016. Gold is up 0.40% trading between $1,231 and $1,244USD/oz, silver is up 3.80% trading between $16.57 and $17.20USD/oz, while oil is down 0.90%, trading between $44.23 and $46.37.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

 

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, Dec. 23rd, 2014

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1620 - 1.1625 (AS AT 8:40AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1610	to	1.1640
	Europe:	1.1616	to	1.1637
	North America:	1.1615	to	1.1667

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1465	1.1567	1.1667	1.1700

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada GDP: 0.3% (exp. 0.1%)

-U.S. GDP (3RD quarter annualized): 5% (exp. 4.3%)

-U.S. durable goods orders: -0.7% (exp. 3.0%) ex transportation: -0.4% (exp. 1.0%)

-U.S. GDP price index: 1.4% (exp. 1.4%)

-U.S. housing price index: 0.6% (prev. 0.0%)

-U.S. new home sales: 0.438 million (exp. 0.472 million) % change: -1.6% (prev. 0.7%)

-U.S. consumer sentiment index: 93.6 (exp. 89.7)

-U.S. personal income: 0.4% (exp. 0.5%) personal spending: 0.6% (exp. 0.5%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Dec. 24		Initial jobless claims
Dec. 25	Christmas Day	Christmas Day
Dec. 26	Boxing Day

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.1579 up to 1.1646 before settling near 1.1630 for the balance of the session. The pairing dipped to 1.1610 overnight before moving up to 1.1630 ahead of the 5:30am Canadian and U.S. data releases. While the Canadian data was good, it was overshadowed by the strong U.S. 3RD quarter GDP sending USDCAD up to 1.1667 amidst broad-based USD strength. This technical level was tested for the 3RD time in the past week and the lack of follow-through has sent USDCAD back down to 1.1615/20. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 1% and 0.45% respectively. EURCAD is down 0.40% trading between 1.4137 and 1.4237. GBPCAD is up 0.35% trading between 1.8090 and 1.8198. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.00967 and 0.00972. Gold is down 0.79% trading between $1,185 and $1,203USD/oz, silver is down 0.20% trading between $15.64 and $16.16USD/oz, while oil is down 2.30%, trading between $55.49 and $58.50.

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Dec. 19th, 2014

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1600 - 1.1605 (AS AT 8:00AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1567	to	1.1590
	Europe:	1.1576	to	1.1601
	North America:	1.1590	to	1.1633

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1465	1.1567	1.1667	1.1700

Key Economic Data Releases:

(	Canada consumer price index m/m: -0.4% (exp. -0.2%) y/y: 2.0% (exp. 2.2%)
-	Bank of Canada CPI core m/m: -0.2% (exp. 0.1%) y/y: 2.1% (exp. 2.4%)
-	Canada retail sales m/m: 0.0% (exp. -0.2)	ex autos: 0.2% (exp. 0.2%)

	DATE		CANADA	U.S.A.
	Dec. 22			Existing home sales
	Dec. 23		GDP	Durable goods, GDP, consumer sentiment
	Dec. 24			Initial jobless claims
	Dec. 25		Christmas Day	Christmas Day
	Dec. 26		Boxing Day

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.1648 down to 1.1569 before bouncing back to 1.1630 as a move up to $59 by oil could not be sustained and prices fell back towards $55. Despite the reversal in oil, the CAD was the best preforming currency yesterday as equity markets soared (DJIA up 400pts). The move up to 1.1630 was short-lived and USDCAD eased lower reaching session lows of 1.1575/80 in late North American trade. Overnight, the pairing dipped to 1.1567 and then bounced to 1.1601 ahead of this morning’s Canadian data releases. Inflation was softer than expected while retail sales were better than expected. USDCAD jumped from 1.1595 up to 1.1633 only to fall right back to 1.1600. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 0.66% and 0.10% respectively. EURCAD is unchanged trading between 1.4204 and 1.4291. GBPCAD is unchanged trading between 1.8109 and 1.8230. JPYCAD is down 0.23% trading between 0.00970 and 0.00976. Gold is up 0.25% trading between $1,194 and $1,201USD/oz, silver is up 0.57% trading between $15.84 and $16.09USD/oz, while oil is up 2.80%, trading between $54.45 and $56.49.

 

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, Dec. 9th, 2014

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1415 - 1.1420 (AS AT 8:09AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1474	to	1.1501
	Europe:	1.1465	to	1.1490
	North America:	1.1397	to	1.1468

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1230	1.1315	1.1500	1.1549

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. wholesale inventories: 0.4% (exp. 0.2%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Dec. 10
Dec. 11	Capacity utilization, new house price	Retail sales, initial jobless claims
Dec. 12		Producer price index, consumer sentiment

Yesterday, USDCAD initially held a 1.1432 – 1.1449 range but then climbed to 1.1480/85 a new high for 2014 and the pairings highest level in nearly 5 years. The catalyst appears to have been a 3% fall in oil along with risk aversion flows. Global equity markets continued to sell off overnight (Shanghai down 5.43%, EURSTOXX50 down 2.36%) and the JPY is the best performing currency for the second straight day. After reaching a new 7 year high in early Monday trade, USDJPY has fallen from 121.85 down to 117.94. This pairing continues to be volatile having since bounced to 119.00. JPYCAD has climbed from 0.00939 up to 0.00965. USDCAD touched 1.1500 overnight but the pairing has come crashing down to 1.1397 on broad-based USD weakness. USDCAD has since bounced to 1.1430 and eased to 1.1420. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down 0.37% and 1.07% respectively. EURCAD is up 0.40% trading between 1.4125 and 1.4200. GBPCAD is unchanged trading between 1.7883 and 1.8015. JPYCAD is up 1% trading between 0.00950 and 0.00965. Gold is up 3% trading between $1,199 and $1,238USD/oz, silver is up 5% trading between $16.30 and $17.20USD/oz, while oil is up 0.84%, trading between $62.28 and $64.11.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

 

Please contact the VBCE trading desk at 604-685-1008 for more information on our foreign exchange and wire payment services. Updates by stevebrown@vbce.ca 

 

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