USDCAD breaks above 1.1900 / posts new 5.5 year high

 

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Monday, Jan. 12th, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1923 - 1.1928 (AS AT 8:07AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1836	to	1.1865
	Europe:	1.1840	to	1.1886
	North America:	1.1878	to	1.1938

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1671	1.1800	1.1984	1.2200

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. labour market conditions index: 6.1 (prev. 5.5)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan. 13
Jan. 14		Retail sales, business inventories
Jan. 15		Initial jobless claims, producer price index
Jan. 16		CPI, industrial production, consumer sentiment

On Friday, USDCAD traded from 1.1805 up to 1.1890 before easing to close the week at 1.1866. The USD and the CAD were the worst preforming currencies on Friday. Although the U.S. added more jobs than expected including a large revision to November’s data, many of the jobs were of the lower paying / part-time quality. On the other hand, Canada added 53,300 full time jobs while losing 57,700 part time jobs. Overnight during the Asian session, USDCAD eased lower to 1.1836 on broad-based USD weakness. The pairing reversed course testing Friday’s post-employment data high during the London session. With oil losing nearly another 5% today, USDCAD has broken above 1.1900 and has made gains to 1.1940, its highest level in 5.5 years. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down 1.34% and 0.25% respectively. EURCAD is up 0.35% trading between 1.4004 and 1.4116. GBPCAD is up 0.50% trading between 1.7925 and 1.8080. JPYCAD is up 0.45% trading between 0.00996 and 0.01007. Gold is up 1% trading between $1,217 and $1,231USD/oz, silver is up 0.71% trading between $16.43 and $16.68USD/oz, while oil is down nearly 5%, trading between $45.93 and $48.24.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Jan. 9th, 2015

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Jan. 9th, 2015


USDCAD spot rate: 1.1850 - 1.1855 (AS AT 9:05AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1812	to	1.1841
	Europe:	1.1822	to	1.1851
	North America:	1.1806	to	1.1890

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1671	1.1800	1.1890	1.1984

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada housing starts: 180.6k (exp. 193.5k))

-Canada building permits: -13.8% (exp. 1.0%)

-Canada net employment change: -4,300 (exp. 15,000)

-Canada unemployment rate: 6.6% (exp. 6.6%) *participation rate: 65.9% (exp. 66.0%)

-U.S. Non-farm payrolls: 252,000 (exp. 240,000) *previous revised from 321k to 357k

-U.S. unemployment rate: 5.6% (exp. 5.7%) participation rate: 62.7% (exp. 62.9%)

-U.S. average hourly earnings: -0.2% (exp. 0.2%)

-U.S. wholesale inventories: 0.8% (exp. 0.3)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan.12		Labour market conditions index
Jan. 13
Jan. 14		Retail sales, business inventories
Jan. 15		Initial jobless claims, producer price index
Jan. 16		CPI, industrial production, consumer sentiment

Yesterday, USDCAD traded in a 1.1801 – 1.1844 range. The pairing climbed to 1.1850 overnight before falling to 1.1810 ahead of today’s 5:30am jobs data releases. The headline data favoured the USD and we saw a quick move up to 1.1850. Although the U.S. data added more jobs than expected including a large revision to November’s data, the “quality” of the jobs is suspect as average hourly earnings declined by 0.2%. On the other hand, Canada added 53,300 full time jobs while losing 57,700 part time jobs. USDCAD pulled back to 1.1810 but then climbed steadily making new highs of 1.1890. The pairing has remained choppy falling to 1.1840, bouncing to 1.1875, and falling again to 1.1850. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down 0.75% and 0.81% respectively. EURCAD is up 0.50% trading between 1.3934 and 1.4051. GBPCAD is up 1% trading between 1.7830 and 1.7990. JPYCAD is up 1% trading between 0.00987 and 0.0100. Gold is up 0.75% trading between $1,207 and $1,221USD/oz, silver is up 0.34% trading between $16.21 and $16.62USD/oz, while oil is down 2.87%, trading between $47.19 and $49.59.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, Dec. 23rd, 2014

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1620 - 1.1625 (AS AT 8:40AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1610	to	1.1640
	Europe:	1.1616	to	1.1637
	North America:	1.1615	to	1.1667

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1465	1.1567	1.1667	1.1700

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada GDP: 0.3% (exp. 0.1%)

-U.S. GDP (3RD quarter annualized): 5% (exp. 4.3%)

-U.S. durable goods orders: -0.7% (exp. 3.0%) ex transportation: -0.4% (exp. 1.0%)

-U.S. GDP price index: 1.4% (exp. 1.4%)

-U.S. housing price index: 0.6% (prev. 0.0%)

-U.S. new home sales: 0.438 million (exp. 0.472 million) % change: -1.6% (prev. 0.7%)

-U.S. consumer sentiment index: 93.6 (exp. 89.7)

-U.S. personal income: 0.4% (exp. 0.5%) personal spending: 0.6% (exp. 0.5%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Dec. 24		Initial jobless claims
Dec. 25	Christmas Day	Christmas Day
Dec. 26	Boxing Day

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.1579 up to 1.1646 before settling near 1.1630 for the balance of the session. The pairing dipped to 1.1610 overnight before moving up to 1.1630 ahead of the 5:30am Canadian and U.S. data releases. While the Canadian data was good, it was overshadowed by the strong U.S. 3RD quarter GDP sending USDCAD up to 1.1667 amidst broad-based USD strength. This technical level was tested for the 3RD time in the past week and the lack of follow-through has sent USDCAD back down to 1.1615/20. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 1% and 0.45% respectively. EURCAD is down 0.40% trading between 1.4137 and 1.4237. GBPCAD is up 0.35% trading between 1.8090 and 1.8198. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.00967 and 0.00972. Gold is down 0.79% trading between $1,185 and $1,203USD/oz, silver is down 0.20% trading between $15.64 and $16.16USD/oz, while oil is down 2.30%, trading between $55.49 and $58.50.

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Monday, Dec. 22nd, 2014

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1630 - 1.1635 (AS AT 8:20AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1579	to	1.1615
	Europe:	1.1600	to	1.1637
	North America:	1.1617	to	1.1646

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1465	1.1567	1.1667	1.1700

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. existing home sales: 4.93 million (exp. 5.25 million)

-U.S. existing homes sales % change: -6.1% (exp. 0.8%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Dec. 23	GDP	Durable goods, GDP, consumer sentiment
Dec. 24		Initial jobless claims
Dec. 25	Christmas Day	Christmas Day
Dec. 26	Boxing Day

On Friday, USDCAD traded from 1.1567 up to 1.1633 before easing back to 1.1600. Canadian Inflation was softer than expected while retail sales were better than expected. Overnight, the pairing dipped to 1.1579 before climbing to session highs at 1.1646 this morning. In the absence of any key economic data, the CAD appears to be tracking oil which has fallen $3 from its overnight high of $58.50. Currently, the TSX is down 0.13% while the DJIA is up 0.43%. EURCAD is up 0.50% trading between 1.4163 and 1.4279. GBPCAD is up 0.35% trading between 1.8090 and 1.8198. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.00967 and 0.00972. Gold is down 0.79% trading between $1,185 and $1,203USD/oz, silver is down 0.20% trading between $15.64 and $16.16USD/oz, while oil is down 2.30%, trading between $55.49 and $58.50.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive