USDCAD falls from 1.2442 down to 1.2310 - two week low on higher oil

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, June 9, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2325 - 1.2330 (AS AT 8:09AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2380	to	1.2419
	Europe:	1.2378	to	1.2442
	North America:	1.2317	to	1.2382

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2260	1.2317	1.2440	1.2563

Key Economic Data Releases:

- U.S. wholesale inventories: 0.4% (exp. 0.2%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
June 10		Business inventories, crude oil stocks change
June 11	New housing price index	Jobless claims, retail sales
June 12		Producer price index, consumer sentiment index

Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.2430 to 1.2472 before falling to 1.2396 on better than expected Canadian housing data. The pairing then bounced to 1.2450 before falling to 1.2383. The move below 1.2400 was short-lived with USDCAD climbing back to 1.2415 late in the session. Overnight, USDCAD dipped to 1.2380 before climbing to 1.2442. The move higher was short-lived and USDCAD dropped to 1.2330 this morning in the absence of any key data. A minor bounce to 1.2355 has since been followed by a move to 1.2310 – a two week low. Oil is on the rise for the 2ND straight day after comments made by the Saudi Arabia Oil Ministry: “production rise is the result of increased global demand – not designed to compensate for low oil prices.” On Thursday, U.S. retail sales data is expected to rise by 1.1% after no gain the previous month. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 0.16% and 0.12% respectively. EURCAD is down 1% trading between 1.3848 and 1.4055. GBPCAD is down 1%, trading between 1.8849 and 1.9055. JPYCAD is down 0.55% trading between 0.00991 and 0.00999. Gold is up 0.23% trading between $1,172 and $1,183USD/oz., silver is down 0.12% trading between $15.97 and $16.19USD/oz., while oil is up 3.5% trading between $58.25 and $60.20.

 

USDCAD falls to 1.2021 ahead of tomorrow's U.S. Fed Announcement

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, Apr. 28th, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2036 - 1.2041 (AS AT 8:36AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2085	to	1.2110
	Europe:	1.2057	to	1.2116
	North America:	1.2021	to	1.2093

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1984	1.2020	1.2100	1.2200

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. Case Shiller home price indices: 5.0% (exp. 4.7%)

-U.S. consumer confidence: 95.2 (exp. 102.5)

-U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing: -3 (exp. -2)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Apr. 29	Raw mat / industrial prod. prices	GDP, pending home sale, Fed interest rate
Apr. 30	GDP	Personal income/spending, jobless claims
May 1	RBC Manufacturing PMI	Markit/Ism Mfg., consumer sentiment index

Yesterday, the downtrend continued with USDCAD falling from 1.2200 down to 1.2081. The pairing bounced marginally to hold in a 1.2090 – 1.2110 range for the balance of the session. USDCAD had been confined to a 1.21 – 1.23 range last week after the large move lower (from 1.2650 down to 1.2088) the week before. USDCAD dipped to 1.2052 in early North American trading before bouncing to 1.2093. Again, U.S. economic data was weaker than expected today, a common trend recently, and USDCAD has fallen to 1.2021 amidst broad-based USD weakness. A brief bounce to 1.2038 has been followed by a re- test of 1.2020. The main event risk comes tomorrow with the U.S. Fed interest rate policy announcement. After a string of weaker than expected data, the Fed could push back raising interest rates to September now – the main reason why the USD has been under pressures vs. most currencies these past few weeks. Currently, the TSX is down 0.33% while the DJIA is up 0.14%. EURCAD is up 0.35% trading between 1.3145 and 1.3225. GBPCAD is up 0.25%, trading between 1.8377 and 1.8489. JPYCAD is down 0.16% trading between 0.01012 and 0.01017. Gold is up 0.81% trading between $1,199 and $1,214USD/oz., silver is up 1.07% trading between $16.32 and $16.66USD/oz., while oil is up 0.37% trading between $56.11 and $57.79.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

 

 

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, Jan. 27th, 2015

USDCAD tests 1.25 and then falls to 1.2380/85

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2390 - 1.2395 (AS AT 8:15AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2470	to	1.2495
	Europe:	1.2442	to	1.2502
	North America:	1.2475	to	1.2475

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2200	1.2314	1.2504	1.2713

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. durable goods orders: -3.4% (exp. 0.5%) ex transportation: -0.8% (exp. 0.6%)

-U.S. Markit services purchasing managers index: 54.0 (exp. 53.8)

-U.S. consumer confidence: 102.9 (exp. 95.1)

-U.S. new home sales: 1.032 million (exp. 0.450 million) % change: 11.6% (prev. -6.7%)

-U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing: 6 (exp. 6)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan. 28		Fed interest rate decision
Jan. 29		Jobless claims, pending home sales
Jan. 30	GDP	GDP, consumer sentiment index

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.2420 up to 1.2475 before falling back to 1.2405/10 in North American trading. The move lower was short-lived with USDCAD bouncing back towards 1.2464. The pairing continued higher overnight reaching the 80 cent mark (1.2500) before falling back to 1.2475 at the North American open. Weaker than expected U.S. durable goods data and general market weakness (EURSTOXX down 1.53% / DJIA down 300pts.) has resulted in broad-based USD weakness as the market awaits tomorrow’s U.S. Fed announcement. USDCAD has fallen to 1.2380/85 matching last Friday’s post Canadian data low. We’ve seen a minor bounce back towards 1.2407. The EURO is the top performer extending its post Greece election gains to 1.1422 – up two cents on the day. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down 0.80% and 2% respectively. EURCAD is up 0.70% trading between 1.4010 and 1.4148. GBPCAD is up 0.25% trading between 1.8764 and 1.8894. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.01052 and 0.01060. Gold is up 1% trading between $1,272 and $1,297USD/oz, silver is up 1% trading between $17.55 and $18.20USD/oz, while oil is up 0.80%, trading between $44.65 and $45.72.

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Jan. 23rd, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2397 - 1.2402 (AS AT 8:40AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2360	to	1.2409
	Europe:	1.2368	to	1.2428
	North America:	1.2380	to	1.2457

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2200	1.2314	1.2457	1.2504

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada retail sales: 0.4% (exp. -0.2%) ex autos: 0.7% (exp. 0.1%)

-Canada consumer price index m/m: -0.7% (exp. -0.6%) y/y: 1.5% (exp. 1.5%)

-Bank of Canada CPI core m/m: -0.3% (exp. -0.4%) y/y: 2.2% (exp. 2.2%)

-U.S. leading indicators: 0.5% (exp. 0.4%)

-U.S. existing home sales: 5.04 million (exp. 5.06 million) % change: 2.4% (exp. 2.4%)

-U.S. Markit manufacturing: 53.7 (exp. 54.0)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan. 26
Jan. 27		Durable goods orders, Markit services PMI,
		consumer confidence, new home sales
Jan. 28		Fed interest rate decision
Jan. 29		Jobless claims, pending home sales
Jan. 30	GDP	GDP, consumer sentiment index

Yesterday, USDCAD remained volatile in a 1.2314 – 1.2389 range after the European Central Bank introduced stimulus measures of EUR60 billion / month to start March 2015 and end in Sept. 2016. Part way through the North American session, USDCAD broke higher reaching 1.2420 before easing back towards 1.2365. Overnight, the pairing climbed to 1.2457 ahead of the 5:30am Canadian data release. Inflation data was close to expectation while retails sales beat estimates sending USDCAD down to 1.2380. The move was short lived with the pairing bouncing to 1.2417. USDCAD appears to be stalling at this level and has since fallen back to 1.2395/1.2400. Currently, the TSX is up 0.33% while the DJIA is down 0.27%. EURCAD is down 0.70% trading between 1.3805 and 1.4095. GBPCAD is up 0.35% trading between 1.8530 and 1.8663. JPYCAD is up 0.80% trading between 0.01041 and 0.01056. Gold is down 0.85% trading between $1,284 and $1,302USD/oz, silver is down 0.57% trading between $18.12 and $18.40USD/oz, while oil is unchanged, trading between $45.38 and $47.73.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

USDCAD Volatility Sparked by Swiss National Bank Surprise Announcement

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Thursday, Jan. 15th, 2015

 

Full Bloomberg Article Here

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1925 - 1.1930 (AS AT 8:55AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1940	to	1.1975
	Europe:	1.1950	to	1.1994
	North America:	1.1803	to	1.1950

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1733	1.1800	1.1984	1.2200

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. initial jobless claims: 316k (exp. 291k)
-U.S. NY Empire State manufacturing index: 9.95 (exp. 5.0)
-U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey: 6.3 (exp. 19.9)
-U.S. producer price index m/m: -0.3% (exp. -0.4%) y/y: 1.1% (exp. 1.0%)
-U.S. PPI ex food and energy m/m: 0.3% (exp. 0.1%) y/y: 2.1% (exp. 1.9%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan. 16		CPI, industrial production, consumer sentiment

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.1948 up to 1.2017 before falling to 1.1927. The pairing made an attempt higher mid-morning but failed to sustain a break of 1.20 for the 3^rd time and fell back to 1.1940. Oil continued its 2^nd day of gains reaching $49 while markets moved into positive territory. During the Asian session, the AUD outperformed as Australia added 37,400 jobs (41,600 were full time) vs. exp. 3,800. Despite firm oil prices, USDCAD pushed higher reaching 1.1994 in early European trade. The Swiss National Bank shocked markets by removing its 3 year old cap of 1.20 for EURCHF. Despite also announcing a negative deposit rate of 0.75%, the CHF surged across the board. CHFCAD climbed from 1.1710 up to 1.4753 before falling back to 1.3250. The extreme volatility saw oil make gains to $51.44 – a 17% gain over the past 3 days. Combined with the failed 4TH attempt to break 1.20, USDCAD plunged to 1.1803. The move was short-lived with the pairing bouncing back to 1.1950. It’s since been confined to a 1.1910/40 range. Currently, the TSX is unchanged while the DJIA is down 0.33%. EURCAD is down 2% trading between 1.3787 and 1.4106. GBPCAD is down 1% trading between 1.80 and 1.8250. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.01014 and 0.01027. Gold is up 2.40% trading between $1,226 and $1,266USD/oz, silver is up 1% trading between $16.70 and $17.23USD/oz, while oil is down 2%, trading between $46.95 and $51.44.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive