VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Feb. 27th, 2015

 

USDCAD remains range bound between 1.2448 - 1.2524

 

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2500 - 1.2505 (AS AT 8:05AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2483	to	1.2524
	Europe:	1.2468	to	1.2493
	North America:	1.2448	to	1.2505

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2350	1.2400	1.2550	1.2660

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. GDP 4TH quarter annualized (2ND reading): 2.2% (exp. 2.1%)

-U.S. core personal consumption expenditure: 1.1% (exp. 1.1%)

-U.S. Chicago purchasing managers index: 45.8 (exp. 58.0)

-U.S. pending home sales: 1.7% (exp. 1.8%)

-U.S. consumer sentiment index: 95.4 (exp. 94.0)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Mar. 2	Current account Q4, RBC	Personal income / spending, Markit / ISM
	manufacturing PMI	manufacturing PMI, construction spending
Mar. 3	GDP Q4
Mar. 4	Bank of Canada interest rate	ADP employment, ISM non-mfg PMI
Mar. 5	Ivey purchasing managers index	Jobless claims, factory orders
Mar. 6	Building permits, Int’l merchandise	Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, trade
	trade	balance

Yesterday, USDCAD initially added to its weekly gains trading from 1.2446 down to 1.2387 and then erased a good portion of its gains by climbing to 1.2535 during the North American session. Oil was down over 6% at one point but managed to pair about 50% of its losses. Overnight, USDCAD trended lower on broad-based USD weakness reaching 1.2448 ahead of the U.S. GDP data release. Despite a declining trend (3RD quarter GDP was 5%, while the preliminary 4th quarter was 2.6%) the USD recovered some of its earlier losses sending USDCAD back up to 1.2505. With month end flows and continued choppiness, USDCAD has since dipped to 1.2455 followed by a return to 1.2510 despite a 2% rise in oil. The main event risk next week comes Wednesday with the Bank of Canada interest rate policy decision and on Friday with U.S. employment data. Currently, the TSX is up 0.36% while the DJIA is down 0.12%. EURCAD is unchanged trading between 1.3953 and 1.4032. GBPCAD is up 0.20% trading between 1.9191 and 1.9315. JPYCAD is down 0.25% trading between 0.01044 and 0.01050. Gold is up 0.55% trading between $1,205 and $1,219USD/oz, silver is unchanged trading between $16.43 and $16.70USD/oz, while oil is up 2%, trading between $48.69 and $49.51.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

 

 

USDCAD extends above 1.2600 as U.S. Fed maintains status quo

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Thursday, Jan. 29th, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2605 - 1.2610 (AS AT 8:11AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2512	to	1.2541
	Europe:	1.2514	to	1.2562
	North America:	1.2529	to	1.2613

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2380	1.2503	1.2713	1.3063

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. Fed interest rate decision: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150128a.htm
-U.S. initial jobless claims: 265k (exp. 300k)

-U.S. pending home sales: -3.7% (exp. 0.5%) y/y: 6.1% prev. 4.1%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan. 30	GDP	GDP, consumer sentiment index

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.2390 up to 1.2537, effectively erasing Tuesday’s move from 1.2502 down to 1.2380. The pairing was holding near 1.2455 when the 11:00am U.S. Fed announcement was made. A brief dip to 1.2430 was short-lived and followed by a move up to 1.2537. The Fed announcement was not as dovish as the market had anticipated given recent central bank activity in Japan, Europe, and Canada. Equity markets plunged as the Fed continues with its upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy and wait-and-see attitude towards interest rate “lift off”. Overnight, USDCAD eased marginally to 1.2512 before climbing to 1.2562. A pull-back this morning to 1.2529 has been followed by a surge to 1.2640 as oil falls below $44. Tomorrow, Canadian GDP is expected to be unchanged after a 0.3% rise previously. U.S. 4TH quarter GDP is expected to be 3.3% on an annualized basis, down from 5.0%. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down 0.84% and 0.26% respectively. EURCAD is up 1% trading between 1.4113 and 1.4282. GBPCAD is up 0.15% trading between 1.8933 and 1.9013. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.01061 and 0.01067. Gold is down 1.40% trading between $1,263 and $1,286USD/oz, silver is down 4% trading between $17.11 and $18.03USD/oz, while oil is down 1%, trading between $43.71 and $44.94.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2360 - 1.2365 (AS AT 8:45AM PST)

 

 

**USDCAD near 6 year high trading between 1.2314 - 1.2389**

 

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2360 - 1.2365 (AS AT 8:45AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2325	to	1.2374
	Europe:	1.2314	to	1.2375
	North America:	1.2331	to	1.2389

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2200	1.2314	1.2394	1.2504

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. initial jobless claims: 307,000 (exp. 300,000)

-U.S. housing price index: 0.8% (prev. 0.4%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan. 23	CPI, retail sales	Markit mfg PMI, existing home sales

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.2062 up to 1.2394 after the Bank of Canada shocked the markets with a 0.25% interest rate cut. The CAD had weakened in recent days with many market participants believing that the Bank of Canada would simply shift its rhetoric from neutral to slightly dovish. USDCAD eased to 1.2320 in late North American trading but resumed an upward trend in overnight trading. After reaching 1.2375, the pairing dropped to 1.2314 and then climbed to 1.2389 because of the volatility caused by the European Central Bank announcement.

The ECB introduced stimulus measures of EUR60 billion / month to start March 2015 and end in Sept. 2016. EURUSD has fallen to an 11 year low of 1.1400. USDCAD has since fallen to 1.2330 and bounced to 1.2375 where it seems to be running into resistance.

U.S. oil inventories were substantially higher at 10 million barrels vs exp. 2.6 million barrels and oil has fallen from $49 down to $46. USDCAD is now approaching levels not seen since the spring of 2009 during the financial crisis which saw USDCAD briefly trade between 1.2400 and 1.2900. The JPYCAD rate is near a 6 month high while GBPCAD is near a 6 year high. Tomorrow, Canadian CPI inflation data is expected to decline from 2.0% down to 1.5% while retail sales are expected to fall by 0.2%. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 1% and 0.56% respectively. EURCAD is down 1.2% trading between 1.4383 and 1.4073. GBPCAD is down 0.35% trading between 1.8587 and 1.8797. JPYCAD is up 0.40% trading between 0.01045 and 0.01053. Gold is up 0.62% trading between $1,279 and $1,307USD/oz, silver is up 1%d trading between $17.93 and $18.41USD/oz, while oil is down 2.60%, trading between $45.99 and $49.14.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Jan. 9th, 2015

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Jan. 9th, 2015


USDCAD spot rate: 1.1850 - 1.1855 (AS AT 9:05AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1812	to	1.1841
	Europe:	1.1822	to	1.1851
	North America:	1.1806	to	1.1890

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1671	1.1800	1.1890	1.1984

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada housing starts: 180.6k (exp. 193.5k))

-Canada building permits: -13.8% (exp. 1.0%)

-Canada net employment change: -4,300 (exp. 15,000)

-Canada unemployment rate: 6.6% (exp. 6.6%) *participation rate: 65.9% (exp. 66.0%)

-U.S. Non-farm payrolls: 252,000 (exp. 240,000) *previous revised from 321k to 357k

-U.S. unemployment rate: 5.6% (exp. 5.7%) participation rate: 62.7% (exp. 62.9%)

-U.S. average hourly earnings: -0.2% (exp. 0.2%)

-U.S. wholesale inventories: 0.8% (exp. 0.3)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan.12		Labour market conditions index
Jan. 13
Jan. 14		Retail sales, business inventories
Jan. 15		Initial jobless claims, producer price index
Jan. 16		CPI, industrial production, consumer sentiment

Yesterday, USDCAD traded in a 1.1801 – 1.1844 range. The pairing climbed to 1.1850 overnight before falling to 1.1810 ahead of today’s 5:30am jobs data releases. The headline data favoured the USD and we saw a quick move up to 1.1850. Although the U.S. data added more jobs than expected including a large revision to November’s data, the “quality” of the jobs is suspect as average hourly earnings declined by 0.2%. On the other hand, Canada added 53,300 full time jobs while losing 57,700 part time jobs. USDCAD pulled back to 1.1810 but then climbed steadily making new highs of 1.1890. The pairing has remained choppy falling to 1.1840, bouncing to 1.1875, and falling again to 1.1850. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down 0.75% and 0.81% respectively. EURCAD is up 0.50% trading between 1.3934 and 1.4051. GBPCAD is up 1% trading between 1.7830 and 1.7990. JPYCAD is up 1% trading between 0.00987 and 0.0100. Gold is up 0.75% trading between $1,207 and $1,221USD/oz, silver is up 0.34% trading between $16.21 and $16.62USD/oz, while oil is down 2.87%, trading between $47.19 and $49.59.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive