USDCAD falls to 1.2021 ahead of tomorrow's U.S. Fed Announcement

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, Apr. 28th, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2036 - 1.2041 (AS AT 8:36AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2085	to	1.2110
	Europe:	1.2057	to	1.2116
	North America:	1.2021	to	1.2093

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1984	1.2020	1.2100	1.2200

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. Case Shiller home price indices: 5.0% (exp. 4.7%)

-U.S. consumer confidence: 95.2 (exp. 102.5)

-U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing: -3 (exp. -2)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Apr. 29	Raw mat / industrial prod. prices	GDP, pending home sale, Fed interest rate
Apr. 30	GDP	Personal income/spending, jobless claims
May 1	RBC Manufacturing PMI	Markit/Ism Mfg., consumer sentiment index

Yesterday, the downtrend continued with USDCAD falling from 1.2200 down to 1.2081. The pairing bounced marginally to hold in a 1.2090 – 1.2110 range for the balance of the session. USDCAD had been confined to a 1.21 – 1.23 range last week after the large move lower (from 1.2650 down to 1.2088) the week before. USDCAD dipped to 1.2052 in early North American trading before bouncing to 1.2093. Again, U.S. economic data was weaker than expected today, a common trend recently, and USDCAD has fallen to 1.2021 amidst broad-based USD weakness. A brief bounce to 1.2038 has been followed by a re- test of 1.2020. The main event risk comes tomorrow with the U.S. Fed interest rate policy announcement. After a string of weaker than expected data, the Fed could push back raising interest rates to September now – the main reason why the USD has been under pressures vs. most currencies these past few weeks. Currently, the TSX is down 0.33% while the DJIA is up 0.14%. EURCAD is up 0.35% trading between 1.3145 and 1.3225. GBPCAD is up 0.25%, trading between 1.8377 and 1.8489. JPYCAD is down 0.16% trading between 0.01012 and 0.01017. Gold is up 0.81% trading between $1,199 and $1,214USD/oz., silver is up 1.07% trading between $16.32 and $16.66USD/oz., while oil is up 0.37% trading between $56.11 and $57.79.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

 

 

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Monday, Mar 9th, 2015

USDCAD eases from 1.2625 down to 1.2574 as oil regains the $50 level

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2585 - 1.2590 (AS AT 8:15AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2597	to	1.2625
	Europe:	1.2574	to	1.2608
	North America:	1.2574	to	1.2597

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2350	1.2400	1.2625	1.2660

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada housing starts: 156.3k (exp. 179.0k)
-U.S. labour market conditions index: 4.0 (prev. 4.9)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Mar. 10		Wholesale inventories
Mar. 11		EIA crude oil stock change
Mar. 12	New housing price index	Retail sales, jobless claims, bus. Inventories
Mar. 13	Net employment change	Producer price index, consumer sentiment

On Friday, USDCAD traded from 1.2496 down to 1.2456 ahead of the U.S. employment data release. The headline numbers were strong with 295,000 jobs added and a fall in the unemployment rate from 5.7% to 5.5%. The USD made gains across the board taking USDCAD up to 1.2625, effectively wiping away the CAD gains earlier in the week from the strong GDP data and the surprise neutral tone from the Bank of Canada (USDCAD had fallen from 1.2560 down to 1.2407). USDCAD closed the week near session highs, with the only pull-back coming earlier in the day to 1.2570. Overnight, USDCAD failed to add to its gains above 1.2625 and eased lower to 1.2574. The pairing has remained idle this morning holding in a 1.2574 – 1.2597 range. On Friday, Canada is expected to show a decline of 5,000 jobs in February after posting a strong January (+35,400). The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 6.7% from 6.6%. Currently, the TSX is unchanged while the DJIA is up 0.54%. EURCAD is down 0.10% trading between 1.3654 and 1.3736. GBPCAD is up 0.25% trading between 1.8961 and 1.9044. JPYCAD is down 0.40% trading between 0.01040 and 0.01045. Gold is up 0.53% trading between $1,167 and $1,175USD/oz, silver is unchanged trading between $15.75 and $15.98USD/oz, while oil is up 1.51% trading between $49.28 and $50.76.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Monday, Feb. 16th, 2015

 

USDCAD unchanged 1.2423 - 1.2478 range in quiet, Holiday trade

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2470 - 1.2475 (AS AT 7:44AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2423	to	1.2458
	Europe:	1.2427	to	1.2461
	North America:	1.2437	to	1.2478

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2380	1.2420	1.2535	1.2658

Key Economic Data Releases:

- No key data Key Event Calendar

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Feb. 16		President’s Day
Feb. 17	Net foreign securities transactions	NY State Mfg., net long-term TIC flows
Feb. 18	Wholesale sales	Building permits, housing starts, producer
		price index, industrial production
Feb. 19		Jobless claims, leading indicators,
		Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey
Feb. 20	Retail sales	Markit manufacturing PMI

On Friday, the short-term down-trend / correction in USDCAD continued with a move from 1.2536 down to 1.2422 on a combination of stronger oil (+3%) and better than expected Canadian manufacturing shipments. The pairing bounced to 1.2480 before slipping back towards 1.2445 late in the session. Yesterday’s Asian session saw the down-trend continue with a move from 1.2458 to 1.2423 – USDCAD holding near the lows for much of the session. The pairing climbed to 1.2461 in London with a quick move back to 1.2437. Much of Canada and the U.S. are on holiday today and USDCAD has edged up to 1.2478 in thin trading. Currently, both the TSX and the DJIA are closed. EURCAD is up 0.35% trading between 1.4155 and 1.4239. GBPCAD is up 0.10% trading between 1.9122 and 1.9209. JPYCAD is up 0.50% trading between 0.01047 and 0.01053. Gold is up 0.24% trading between $1,227 and $1,237USD/oz, silver is unchanged trading between $17.28 and $17.42USD/oz, while oil is unchanged, trading between $52.14 and $53.59.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Wednesday, Feb. 4th, 2015

After yesterday's decline from 1.2645 to 1.2353, USDCAD moves back to 1.2592

 

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2558 - 1.2563 (AS AT 8:07AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2390	to	1.2444
	Europe:	1.2408	to	1.2476
	North America:	1.2440	to	1.2592

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2260	1.2350	1.2592	1.2645

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada Ivey purchasing managers index: 45.4 (exp. 53.9)

-U.S. ADP employment change: 213k (exp. 225k)

-U.S. ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index: 56.7 (exp. 56.3)

-U.S. Markit services PMI: 54.2 (prev. 53.3)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Feb. 5	Int’l merchandise trade	Trade balance, jobless claims
Feb. 6	Net employment change	Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate,
	Unemployment rate, participation	participation rate
	rate, building permits

Yesterday, after climbing to 1.2645, USDCAD plunged to 1.2353 before bouncing to close the session near 1.2396. Since last Thursday, oil has gained nearly 25% causing a sharp 4.5 cent correction lower in USDCAD over the past 3 trading days. Overnight, USDCAD held a 1.2390 – 1.2476 range. The pairing opened this morning’s session at 1.2440 but has gapped higher after breaking above yesterday’s broken support level at 1.2503. The main catalyst is a 5% decline in oil and the 7:00am release of the Canadian Ivey purchasing managers index which was much weaker than expected. After reaching 1.2592, USDCAD has since fallen back towards 1.2540. Tomorrow, Canada’s trade deficit is expected to widen from $640 million to $1 billion. The U.S. trade deficit is expected to narrow from $39 billion to $38 billion. On Friday, Canada is expected to add 4,500 jobs after losing 4,300 in December. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 6.7%. The U.S. is expected to add 235,000 jobs, down from the 252,000 added in December. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.6%. Currently, the TSX is down 0.32% while the DJIA is up 0.18%. EURCAD is up 0.70% trading between 1.4220 and 1.4386. GBPCAD is up 2% trading between 1.8800 and 1.9190. JPYCAD is up 1.25% trading between 0.01053 and 0.01071. Gold is up 0.13% trading between $1,257 and $1,272USD/oz, silver is up 0.34% trading between $17.18 and $17.66USD/oz, while oil is down 5.2%, trading between $49.97 and $52.54.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive