Happy Holidays from the VBCE Team!

 

 

 

 

 

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, Dec. 23rd, 2014

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1620 - 1.1625 (AS AT 8:40AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1610	to	1.1640
	Europe:	1.1616	to	1.1637
	North America:	1.1615	to	1.1667

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1465	1.1567	1.1667	1.1700

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada GDP: 0.3% (exp. 0.1%)

-U.S. GDP (3RD quarter annualized): 5% (exp. 4.3%)

-U.S. durable goods orders: -0.7% (exp. 3.0%) ex transportation: -0.4% (exp. 1.0%)

-U.S. GDP price index: 1.4% (exp. 1.4%)

-U.S. housing price index: 0.6% (prev. 0.0%)

-U.S. new home sales: 0.438 million (exp. 0.472 million) % change: -1.6% (prev. 0.7%)

-U.S. consumer sentiment index: 93.6 (exp. 89.7)

-U.S. personal income: 0.4% (exp. 0.5%) personal spending: 0.6% (exp. 0.5%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Dec. 24		Initial jobless claims
Dec. 25	Christmas Day	Christmas Day
Dec. 26	Boxing Day

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.1579 up to 1.1646 before settling near 1.1630 for the balance of the session. The pairing dipped to 1.1610 overnight before moving up to 1.1630 ahead of the 5:30am Canadian and U.S. data releases. While the Canadian data was good, it was overshadowed by the strong U.S. 3RD quarter GDP sending USDCAD up to 1.1667 amidst broad-based USD strength. This technical level was tested for the 3RD time in the past week and the lack of follow-through has sent USDCAD back down to 1.1615/20. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 1% and 0.45% respectively. EURCAD is down 0.40% trading between 1.4137 and 1.4237. GBPCAD is up 0.35% trading between 1.8090 and 1.8198. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.00967 and 0.00972. Gold is down 0.79% trading between $1,185 and $1,203USD/oz, silver is down 0.20% trading between $15.64 and $16.16USD/oz, while oil is down 2.30%, trading between $55.49 and $58.50.

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Monday, Dec. 22nd, 2014

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1630 - 1.1635 (AS AT 8:20AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1579	to	1.1615
	Europe:	1.1600	to	1.1637
	North America:	1.1617	to	1.1646

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1465	1.1567	1.1667	1.1700

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. existing home sales: 4.93 million (exp. 5.25 million)

-U.S. existing homes sales % change: -6.1% (exp. 0.8%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Dec. 23	GDP	Durable goods, GDP, consumer sentiment
Dec. 24		Initial jobless claims
Dec. 25	Christmas Day	Christmas Day
Dec. 26	Boxing Day

On Friday, USDCAD traded from 1.1567 up to 1.1633 before easing back to 1.1600. Canadian Inflation was softer than expected while retail sales were better than expected. Overnight, the pairing dipped to 1.1579 before climbing to session highs at 1.1646 this morning. In the absence of any key economic data, the CAD appears to be tracking oil which has fallen $3 from its overnight high of $58.50. Currently, the TSX is down 0.13% while the DJIA is up 0.43%. EURCAD is up 0.50% trading between 1.4163 and 1.4279. GBPCAD is up 0.35% trading between 1.8090 and 1.8198. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.00967 and 0.00972. Gold is down 0.79% trading between $1,185 and $1,203USD/oz, silver is down 0.20% trading between $15.64 and $16.16USD/oz, while oil is down 2.30%, trading between $55.49 and $58.50.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Dec. 19th, 2014

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1600 - 1.1605 (AS AT 8:00AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1567	to	1.1590
	Europe:	1.1576	to	1.1601
	North America:	1.1590	to	1.1633

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1465	1.1567	1.1667	1.1700

Key Economic Data Releases:

(	Canada consumer price index m/m: -0.4% (exp. -0.2%) y/y: 2.0% (exp. 2.2%)
-	Bank of Canada CPI core m/m: -0.2% (exp. 0.1%) y/y: 2.1% (exp. 2.4%)
-	Canada retail sales m/m: 0.0% (exp. -0.2)	ex autos: 0.2% (exp. 0.2%)

	DATE		CANADA	U.S.A.
	Dec. 22			Existing home sales
	Dec. 23		GDP	Durable goods, GDP, consumer sentiment
	Dec. 24			Initial jobless claims
	Dec. 25		Christmas Day	Christmas Day
	Dec. 26		Boxing Day

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.1648 down to 1.1569 before bouncing back to 1.1630 as a move up to $59 by oil could not be sustained and prices fell back towards $55. Despite the reversal in oil, the CAD was the best preforming currency yesterday as equity markets soared (DJIA up 400pts). The move up to 1.1630 was short-lived and USDCAD eased lower reaching session lows of 1.1575/80 in late North American trade. Overnight, the pairing dipped to 1.1567 and then bounced to 1.1601 ahead of this morning’s Canadian data releases. Inflation was softer than expected while retail sales were better than expected. USDCAD jumped from 1.1595 up to 1.1633 only to fall right back to 1.1600. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 0.66% and 0.10% respectively. EURCAD is unchanged trading between 1.4204 and 1.4291. GBPCAD is unchanged trading between 1.8109 and 1.8230. JPYCAD is down 0.23% trading between 0.00970 and 0.00976. Gold is up 0.25% trading between $1,194 and $1,201USD/oz, silver is up 0.57% trading between $15.84 and $16.09USD/oz, while oil is up 2.80%, trading between $54.45 and $56.49.

 

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Thursday, Dec. 18th, 2014

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1605 - 1.1610 (AS AT 8:52AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1626	to	1.1648
	Europe:	1.1569	to	1.1647
	North America:	1.1582	to	1.1630

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1465	1.1600	1.1667	1.1700

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. Fed interest rate decision:

 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20141217a.html

-U.S. initial jobless claims: 289k (exp. 295k)

-U.S. Markit Services PMI: 53.6 (exp. 56.9)

-U.S. leading indicators: 0.6 (exp. 0.5)

-U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey: 24.5 (exp. 27.0)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Dec. 19	CPI, retail sales

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.1623 up to 1.1672 before falling to 1.1560 after the 11:00am Fed announcement. The move lower was short-lived and USDCAD climbed back to hold near 1.1640 for the balance of the session. The Fed stated that “it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. The Committee sees this guidance as consistent with its previous statement that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program.” This gave the markets confidence and the USD was the best performing currency after the Fed statement and both equity markets and oil gained on the news. Overnight, global markets followed suit with the Japanese Nikkei up 2.32% and the EURSTOXX50 up 3.33%. USDCAD dropped to 1.1569 as oil continued to climb. The pairing opened this morning at 1.1582 and climbed to 1.1630 as oil pared its gains. USDCAD has since fallen to 1.1600. Tomorrow, Canadian core inflation is expected to tick up from 2.3% to 2.4%y/y. Retail sales are expected to decline by 0.2% after having gained 0.8% previously.

Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 0.10% and 1.41% respectively. EURCAD is down 0.50% trading between 1.4236 and 1.4377. GBPCAD is up 0.40% trading between 1.8095 and 1.8202. JPYCAD is down 0.40% trading between 0.00973 and 0.00982. Gold is up 0.54% trading between $1,189 and $1,214USD/oz, silver is down 0.14% trading between $15.72 and $16.23USD/oz, while oil is down 1.19%, trading between $55.09 and $59.01.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive