USDCAD Volatility Sparked by Swiss National Bank Surprise Announcement

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Thursday, Jan. 15th, 2015

 

Full Bloomberg Article Here

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1925 - 1.1930 (AS AT 8:55AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1940	to	1.1975
	Europe:	1.1950	to	1.1994
	North America:	1.1803	to	1.1950

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1733	1.1800	1.1984	1.2200

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. initial jobless claims: 316k (exp. 291k)
-U.S. NY Empire State manufacturing index: 9.95 (exp. 5.0)
-U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey: 6.3 (exp. 19.9)
-U.S. producer price index m/m: -0.3% (exp. -0.4%) y/y: 1.1% (exp. 1.0%)
-U.S. PPI ex food and energy m/m: 0.3% (exp. 0.1%) y/y: 2.1% (exp. 1.9%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan. 16		CPI, industrial production, consumer sentiment

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.1948 up to 1.2017 before falling to 1.1927. The pairing made an attempt higher mid-morning but failed to sustain a break of 1.20 for the 3^rd time and fell back to 1.1940. Oil continued its 2^nd day of gains reaching $49 while markets moved into positive territory. During the Asian session, the AUD outperformed as Australia added 37,400 jobs (41,600 were full time) vs. exp. 3,800. Despite firm oil prices, USDCAD pushed higher reaching 1.1994 in early European trade. The Swiss National Bank shocked markets by removing its 3 year old cap of 1.20 for EURCHF. Despite also announcing a negative deposit rate of 0.75%, the CHF surged across the board. CHFCAD climbed from 1.1710 up to 1.4753 before falling back to 1.3250. The extreme volatility saw oil make gains to $51.44 – a 17% gain over the past 3 days. Combined with the failed 4TH attempt to break 1.20, USDCAD plunged to 1.1803. The move was short-lived with the pairing bouncing back to 1.1950. It’s since been confined to a 1.1910/40 range. Currently, the TSX is unchanged while the DJIA is down 0.33%. EURCAD is down 2% trading between 1.3787 and 1.4106. GBPCAD is down 1% trading between 1.80 and 1.8250. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.01014 and 0.01027. Gold is up 2.40% trading between $1,226 and $1,266USD/oz, silver is up 1% trading between $16.70 and $17.23USD/oz, while oil is down 2%, trading between $46.95 and $51.44.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

USDCAD holds near 5.5 year highs between 1.1927 - 1.2017

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Wednesday, Jan. 14th, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1947 - 1.1952 (AS AT 8:53AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1948	to	1.2009
	Europe:	1.1960	to	1.2017
	North America:	1.1927	to	1.1982

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1800	1.1927	1.1984	1.2200

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. retail sales: -0.9% (exp. -0.1%) ex autos: -1.0% (exp. 0.0%)

-U.S. business inventories: 0.2% (exp. 0.2%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan. 15		Initial jobless claims, producer price index
Jan. 16		CPI, industrial production, consumer sentiment

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.1943 up to 1.1993 only to fall back to 1.1926 as oil prices staged a recovery bouncing from $44.23 up to $46.37. With equity markets reversing course part-way into the North American session, (DJIA saw a 300+ pt reversal) USDCAD bounced to hold a 1.1940/1.1970 range where it remained for the balance of the session. Overnight, copper prices dropped by as much as 8% (now down about 4%) and the JPY and USD rallied vs. the commodity based currencies. USDCAD briefly broke above 1.20 in late Asian / early European trade. The move was short-lived and USDCAD fell back to 1.1960 - below a key 1.1984 technical level. U.S. retail sales were weaker than expected and the World Bank revised its 2015 world economic growth forecast lower from 3.4% to 3.0%. The USD broadly weakened taking USDCAD down to 1.1927. The pairing was unable to break below this technical channel trend line for the 2ND straight day and has bounced to 1.1963. With oil prices remaining firm today (a dip to $45.04 was followed by a rise to $46.81), USDCAD has managed to dip back to 1.1940 and is currently holding a 1.1940 – 1.1960 range. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down 1.38% and 1.37% respectively. EURCAD is up 0.15% trading between 1.4058 and 1.4162. GBPCAD is up 0.50% trading between 1.8117 and 1.8245. JPYCAD is up 1% trading between 0.01013 and 0.01029. Gold is up 0.36% trading between $1,225 and $1,244USD/oz, silver is down 1% trading between $16.55 and $17.08USD/oz, while oil is up 0.37%, trading between $45.04 and $46.81.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

USDCAD tests 1.20 and falls to 1.1926 as oil pares losses

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, Jan. 13th, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1940 - 1.1945 (AS AT 9:00AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1943	to	1.1978
	Europe:	1.1956	to	1.1993
	North America:	1.1926	to	1.1983

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1671	1.1800	1.1984	1.2200

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. IBD/TIPP economic optimism index: 51.5 (exp. 48.9)

-U.S. JOLTS job openings: 4.97 million (exp. 4.863 million)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan. 14		Retail sales, business inventories
Jan. 15		Initial jobless claims, producer price index
Jan. 16		CPI, industrial production, consumer sentiment

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.1836 up to 1.1974 – a new 5.5 year high, breaking above Friday’s high of 1.1890. Oil prices dropped by nearly 5% yesterday and for USDCAD, there has been very little in the way of technical resistance between 1.1600 and the psychological level of 1.20. Overnight during the Asian session, the pairing eased to 1.1943 as the USD broadly weakened. Data out of China showed that exports grew faster than expected (9.9% vs. 6.8%) while imports declined less than expected (-2.3% vs. -7.4%). The trend reversed during the London session with USDCAD attempting a test of 1.20. The pairing briefly broke through 1.1984 resistance peaking at 1.1993 as oil touched $44.23. The move was short-lived with oil bouncing to $46.37 and USDCAD falling back to 1.1926. The pairing has since bounced to 1.1950. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 0.18% and 1.10% respectively. EURCAD is down 0.70% trading between 1.4037 and 1.4190. GBPCAD is down 0.35% trading between 1.8069 and 1.8174. JPYCAD is down 0.15% trading between 0.01006 and 0.01016. Gold is up 0.40% trading between $1,231 and $1,244USD/oz, silver is up 3.80% trading between $16.57 and $17.20USD/oz, while oil is down 0.90%, trading between $44.23 and $46.37.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

 

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Jan. 9th, 2015

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Jan. 9th, 2015


USDCAD spot rate: 1.1850 - 1.1855 (AS AT 9:05AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1812	to	1.1841
	Europe:	1.1822	to	1.1851
	North America:	1.1806	to	1.1890

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1671	1.1800	1.1890	1.1984

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada housing starts: 180.6k (exp. 193.5k))

-Canada building permits: -13.8% (exp. 1.0%)

-Canada net employment change: -4,300 (exp. 15,000)

-Canada unemployment rate: 6.6% (exp. 6.6%) *participation rate: 65.9% (exp. 66.0%)

-U.S. Non-farm payrolls: 252,000 (exp. 240,000) *previous revised from 321k to 357k

-U.S. unemployment rate: 5.6% (exp. 5.7%) participation rate: 62.7% (exp. 62.9%)

-U.S. average hourly earnings: -0.2% (exp. 0.2%)

-U.S. wholesale inventories: 0.8% (exp. 0.3)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan.12		Labour market conditions index
Jan. 13
Jan. 14		Retail sales, business inventories
Jan. 15		Initial jobless claims, producer price index
Jan. 16		CPI, industrial production, consumer sentiment

Yesterday, USDCAD traded in a 1.1801 – 1.1844 range. The pairing climbed to 1.1850 overnight before falling to 1.1810 ahead of today’s 5:30am jobs data releases. The headline data favoured the USD and we saw a quick move up to 1.1850. Although the U.S. data added more jobs than expected including a large revision to November’s data, the “quality” of the jobs is suspect as average hourly earnings declined by 0.2%. On the other hand, Canada added 53,300 full time jobs while losing 57,700 part time jobs. USDCAD pulled back to 1.1810 but then climbed steadily making new highs of 1.1890. The pairing has remained choppy falling to 1.1840, bouncing to 1.1875, and falling again to 1.1850. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down 0.75% and 0.81% respectively. EURCAD is up 0.50% trading between 1.3934 and 1.4051. GBPCAD is up 1% trading between 1.7830 and 1.7990. JPYCAD is up 1% trading between 0.00987 and 0.0100. Gold is up 0.75% trading between $1,207 and $1,221USD/oz, silver is up 0.34% trading between $16.21 and $16.62USD/oz, while oil is down 2.87%, trading between $47.19 and $49.59.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive