VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Monday, Jan. 26, 2015

USDCAD holds 1.2420 - 1.2475 range
EURUSD climbs from 11 year low as Greece concerns subside after election results

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2427 - 1.2432 (AS AT 8:03AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2420	to	1.2460
	Europe:	1.2435	to	1.2475
	North America:	1.2420	to	1.2460

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2200	1.2314	1.2457	1.2504

Key Economic Data Releases:

-No key data

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan. 27		Durable goods orders, Markit services PMI,
		consumer confidence, new home sales
Jan. 28		Fed interest rate decision
Jan. 29		Jobless claims, pending home sales
Jan. 30	GDP	GDP, consumer sentiment index

On Friday, USDCAD traded from 1.2360 up to 1.2457 ahead of the Canadian CPI and retail sales data. The pairing dropped to 1.2380 before bouncing to close the week at 1.2424. Risk aversion levels were elevated in early Asian trade as the market awaited the Greece election results. EURUSD dropped to an 11 year low of 1.1098 vs the USD but has since rebounded to 1.1291 as concerns about Greece exiting the Euro subsided. Most global equity markets are trending higher and the JPY is the worst performing currency today after having been the best performing currency last week. USDCAD climbed from 1.2420 up to 1.2475 overnight but the pairing has come full circle and now trades near session lows. There have been two bounces off of the 1.2420 level which appear to be stalling near the 1.2440 level. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are relatively unchanged. EURCAD is up 0.50% trading between 1.3829 and 1.4044. GBPCAD is up 0.70% trading between 1.8595 and 1.8750. JPYCAD is down 0.50% trading between 0.01050 and 0.01062. Gold is down 1.20% trading between $1,276 and $1,299USD/oz, silver is down 2% trading between $17.87 and $18.47USD/oz, while oil is down 0.22%, trading between $44.38 and $46.09.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

USDCAD makes gains to 1.2045 before falling back to 1.1970

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Jan. 16th, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1970 - 1.1975 (AS AT 8:00AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1955	to	1.1984
	Europe:	1.1961	to	1.1999
	North America:	1.1966	to	1.2046

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1733	1.1800	1.2046	1.2200

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. consumer price index m/m: -0.4% (exp. -0.4%) y/y: 0.8% (exp. 0.7%)
-U.S. CPI ex food & energy m/m: 0.0% (exp. 0.1%) y/y: 1.6% (exp. 1.7%)
-U.S. industrial production: -0.1% (exp. 0.0%)
-U.S. consumer sentiment index: 98.2 (exp. 94.1)
- U.S. producer price index m/m: -0.3% (exp. -0.4%) y/y: 1.1% (exp. 1.0%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan. 19	Net foreign securities transactions	Martin Luther King Day
Jan. 20	Manufacturing shipments
Jan. 21	Bank of Canada interest rate	Building permits, housing starts
Jan. 22		Jobless claims, housing price index
Jan. 23	CPI, retail sales	Markit mfg PMI, existing home sales

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.1940 up to 1.1994 before falling to 1.1803. Oil continued its 3rd day of gains reaching $51.44 in the immediate after-math of the Swiss National Bank announcement. Markets were taken by surprise when the SNB removed its 3 year old cap of 1.20 for EURCHF. In one of the most volatile days on record, oil dropped back to $46 within hours of reaching $51.44 and USDCAD quickly bounced back above 1.1900 reaching 1.1970 in late North American trade. The pairing broke above 1.20 this morning making gains to 1.2046 before falling back to 1.2005. A 2ND attempt higher stalled at 1.2030 as oil made gains to $48 and USDCAD dropped back to 1.1970. The worst performing currency is the EURO for the 2ND straight day with EURUSD reaching an 11 year low. Currently, the TSX is up 1.14% while the DJIA is unchanged. EURCAD is down 1.2% trading between 1.3755 and 1.3964. GBPCAD is down 0.35% trading between 1.8090 and 1.8279. JPYCAD is down 1.15% trading between 0.01017 and 0.01033. Gold is up 1% trading between $1,255 and $1,278USD/oz, silver is up 2.53% trading between $16.90 and $17.60USD/oz, while oil is up 2.55%, trading between $45.99 and $48.79.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

USDCAD Volatility Sparked by Swiss National Bank Surprise Announcement

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Thursday, Jan. 15th, 2015

 

Full Bloomberg Article Here

USDCAD spot rate: 1.1925 - 1.1930 (AS AT 8:55AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.1940	to	1.1975
	Europe:	1.1950	to	1.1994
	North America:	1.1803	to	1.1950

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1733	1.1800	1.1984	1.2200

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. initial jobless claims: 316k (exp. 291k)
-U.S. NY Empire State manufacturing index: 9.95 (exp. 5.0)
-U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey: 6.3 (exp. 19.9)
-U.S. producer price index m/m: -0.3% (exp. -0.4%) y/y: 1.1% (exp. 1.0%)
-U.S. PPI ex food and energy m/m: 0.3% (exp. 0.1%) y/y: 2.1% (exp. 1.9%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Jan. 16		CPI, industrial production, consumer sentiment

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.1948 up to 1.2017 before falling to 1.1927. The pairing made an attempt higher mid-morning but failed to sustain a break of 1.20 for the 3^rd time and fell back to 1.1940. Oil continued its 2^nd day of gains reaching $49 while markets moved into positive territory. During the Asian session, the AUD outperformed as Australia added 37,400 jobs (41,600 were full time) vs. exp. 3,800. Despite firm oil prices, USDCAD pushed higher reaching 1.1994 in early European trade. The Swiss National Bank shocked markets by removing its 3 year old cap of 1.20 for EURCHF. Despite also announcing a negative deposit rate of 0.75%, the CHF surged across the board. CHFCAD climbed from 1.1710 up to 1.4753 before falling back to 1.3250. The extreme volatility saw oil make gains to $51.44 – a 17% gain over the past 3 days. Combined with the failed 4TH attempt to break 1.20, USDCAD plunged to 1.1803. The move was short-lived with the pairing bouncing back to 1.1950. It’s since been confined to a 1.1910/40 range. Currently, the TSX is unchanged while the DJIA is down 0.33%. EURCAD is down 2% trading between 1.3787 and 1.4106. GBPCAD is down 1% trading between 1.80 and 1.8250. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.01014 and 0.01027. Gold is up 2.40% trading between $1,226 and $1,266USD/oz, silver is up 1% trading between $16.70 and $17.23USD/oz, while oil is down 2%, trading between $46.95 and $51.44.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive