USDCAD falls to 1.2021 ahead of tomorrow's U.S. Fed Announcement

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, Apr. 28th, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2036 - 1.2041 (AS AT 8:36AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2085	to	1.2110
	Europe:	1.2057	to	1.2116
	North America:	1.2021	to	1.2093

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.1984	1.2020	1.2100	1.2200

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. Case Shiller home price indices: 5.0% (exp. 4.7%)

-U.S. consumer confidence: 95.2 (exp. 102.5)

-U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing: -3 (exp. -2)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Apr. 29	Raw mat / industrial prod. prices	GDP, pending home sale, Fed interest rate
Apr. 30	GDP	Personal income/spending, jobless claims
May 1	RBC Manufacturing PMI	Markit/Ism Mfg., consumer sentiment index

Yesterday, the downtrend continued with USDCAD falling from 1.2200 down to 1.2081. The pairing bounced marginally to hold in a 1.2090 – 1.2110 range for the balance of the session. USDCAD had been confined to a 1.21 – 1.23 range last week after the large move lower (from 1.2650 down to 1.2088) the week before. USDCAD dipped to 1.2052 in early North American trading before bouncing to 1.2093. Again, U.S. economic data was weaker than expected today, a common trend recently, and USDCAD has fallen to 1.2021 amidst broad-based USD weakness. A brief bounce to 1.2038 has been followed by a re- test of 1.2020. The main event risk comes tomorrow with the U.S. Fed interest rate policy announcement. After a string of weaker than expected data, the Fed could push back raising interest rates to September now – the main reason why the USD has been under pressures vs. most currencies these past few weeks. Currently, the TSX is down 0.33% while the DJIA is up 0.14%. EURCAD is up 0.35% trading between 1.3145 and 1.3225. GBPCAD is up 0.25%, trading between 1.8377 and 1.8489. JPYCAD is down 0.16% trading between 0.01012 and 0.01017. Gold is up 0.81% trading between $1,199 and $1,214USD/oz., silver is up 1.07% trading between $16.32 and $16.66USD/oz., while oil is up 0.37% trading between $56.11 and $57.79.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive