USDCAD falls from 1.2442 down to 1.2310 - two week low on higher oil

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, June 9, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2325 - 1.2330 (AS AT 8:09AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2380	to	1.2419
	Europe:	1.2378	to	1.2442
	North America:	1.2317	to	1.2382

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2260	1.2317	1.2440	1.2563

Key Economic Data Releases:

- U.S. wholesale inventories: 0.4% (exp. 0.2%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
June 10		Business inventories, crude oil stocks change
June 11	New housing price index	Jobless claims, retail sales
June 12		Producer price index, consumer sentiment index

Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.2430 to 1.2472 before falling to 1.2396 on better than expected Canadian housing data. The pairing then bounced to 1.2450 before falling to 1.2383. The move below 1.2400 was short-lived with USDCAD climbing back to 1.2415 late in the session. Overnight, USDCAD dipped to 1.2380 before climbing to 1.2442. The move higher was short-lived and USDCAD dropped to 1.2330 this morning in the absence of any key data. A minor bounce to 1.2355 has since been followed by a move to 1.2310 – a two week low. Oil is on the rise for the 2ND straight day after comments made by the Saudi Arabia Oil Ministry: “production rise is the result of increased global demand – not designed to compensate for low oil prices.” On Thursday, U.S. retail sales data is expected to rise by 1.1% after no gain the previous month. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 0.16% and 0.12% respectively. EURCAD is down 1% trading between 1.3848 and 1.4055. GBPCAD is down 1%, trading between 1.8849 and 1.9055. JPYCAD is down 0.55% trading between 0.00991 and 0.00999. Gold is up 0.23% trading between $1,172 and $1,183USD/oz., silver is down 0.12% trading between $15.97 and $16.19USD/oz., while oil is up 3.5% trading between $58.25 and $60.20.

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Wednesday, Mar 18th, 2015

USDCAD spot rate:    1.2795 - 1.2800 (as at 7:45am PST)

 

Ranges:	Asia:	1.2765	to	1.2793
	Europe:	1.2751	to	1.2779
	North America:	1.2735	to	1.2819

 

 

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2492	1.2617	1.2798	1.30

 

 

 

Key Economic Data Releases:

CAD Wholesale Sales -3.1%   (exp. -0.8%)
US Fed Interest Rate Decision tba (11am)

Key Event Calendar:

Date	Canada	U.S.A.
Mar. 19 Mar. 20	CPI, retail sales	Current account(Q4), initial jobless claims

Canadian Wholesale Sales were the worst in 6 years, and oil prices continue their downward spiral. Despite this all eyes are on the US FED interest decision upcoming later this morning. The USD / Cad is still relatively flat and will probably remain this way for the rest of the morning with traders keeping a neutral position as protection from any Fed surprise comments.. The only notable movement in the currency pairings continues to be the British pound, down for a third straight day. The North American stock markets are all down again this morning. The TSX is down .33% while the Dow is .39% lower. EURCAD is up again by  .21% trading between 1.3538 and 1.3606. GBPCAD is down, by 0.49% trading between 1.8733 and 1.8915. JPYCAD is up 0.29% trading between 0.01053 and 0.01059. Gold is down 0.09% trading between $1,146 and $1,153USD/oz., silver is down 0.33% trading between $15.47 and $15.63USD/oz., while oil is down .47% trading between $42.06 and $42.96.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Monday, Mar 9th, 2015

USDCAD eases from 1.2625 down to 1.2574 as oil regains the $50 level

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2585 - 1.2590 (AS AT 8:15AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2597	to	1.2625
	Europe:	1.2574	to	1.2608
	North America:	1.2574	to	1.2597

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2350	1.2400	1.2625	1.2660

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada housing starts: 156.3k (exp. 179.0k)
-U.S. labour market conditions index: 4.0 (prev. 4.9)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Mar. 10		Wholesale inventories
Mar. 11		EIA crude oil stock change
Mar. 12	New housing price index	Retail sales, jobless claims, bus. Inventories
Mar. 13	Net employment change	Producer price index, consumer sentiment

On Friday, USDCAD traded from 1.2496 down to 1.2456 ahead of the U.S. employment data release. The headline numbers were strong with 295,000 jobs added and a fall in the unemployment rate from 5.7% to 5.5%. The USD made gains across the board taking USDCAD up to 1.2625, effectively wiping away the CAD gains earlier in the week from the strong GDP data and the surprise neutral tone from the Bank of Canada (USDCAD had fallen from 1.2560 down to 1.2407). USDCAD closed the week near session highs, with the only pull-back coming earlier in the day to 1.2570. Overnight, USDCAD failed to add to its gains above 1.2625 and eased lower to 1.2574. The pairing has remained idle this morning holding in a 1.2574 – 1.2597 range. On Friday, Canada is expected to show a decline of 5,000 jobs in February after posting a strong January (+35,400). The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 6.7% from 6.6%. Currently, the TSX is unchanged while the DJIA is up 0.54%. EURCAD is down 0.10% trading between 1.3654 and 1.3736. GBPCAD is up 0.25% trading between 1.8961 and 1.9044. JPYCAD is down 0.40% trading between 0.01040 and 0.01045. Gold is up 0.53% trading between $1,167 and $1,175USD/oz, silver is unchanged trading between $15.75 and $15.98USD/oz, while oil is up 1.51% trading between $49.28 and $50.76.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, Feb. 24th, 2015

USDCAD volatile in a 1.2552 - 1.2662 range as oil bounces and U.S. Fed pushes back rate hike

 

 

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2565 - 1.2570 (AS AT 8:20AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2564	to	1.2610
	Europe:	1.2598	to	1.2662
	North America:	1.2552	to	1.2639

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2420	1.2550	1.2660	1.2713

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. Markit services PMI: 57.0 (exp. 54.1)

-U.S. consumer confidence: 96.4 (exp. 99.5)

-U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index: 0 (exp. 6)

-U.S. Case Shiller home price indices: 4.5% (exp. 4.3%)

-U.S. Fed Yellen speech

-Bank of Canada Poloz speech TBA 11:00am

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Feb. 25		New home sales
Feb. 26	Consumer price index	CPI, durable goods, jobless claims
Feb. 27		GDP, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.2523 up to 1.2624 before falling back to 1.2550 as oil popped back above $50 on news regarding a possible emergency OPEC meeting. Oil could not hold above $50 and USDCAD drifted back to hold a 1.2570 – 1.2585 range for the balance of the session. Overnight, USDCAD climbed to 1.2662 as oil dipped below $49. The move higher was short-lived with USDCAD falling to 1.2552 this morning. Oil staged a move back above $50 as Libya shut down its largest oilfield. Also, broad- based USD weakness ensued after U.S. Fed President Yellen confirmed that the Fed would be patient in raising rates and would change their forward guidance before raising interest rates. It appears the most likely scenario now is for a possible hike in July or September. USDCAD has remained choppy having bounced to 1.2588, dipped again to 1.2552, and bounced back to 1.2600. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz will be speaking at 11:00am this morning and he may shed some light as to the Bank’s comfort level with recent Canadian data and the recovery in oil prices. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are both up 0.41%. EURCAD is unchanged trading between 1.4242 and 1.4331. GBPCAD is unchanged trading between 1.9409 and 1.9556. JPYCAD is down 0.45% trading between 0.01054 and 0.01059. Gold is unchanged trading between $1,190 and $1,204USD/oz, silver is up 0.74% trading between $16.18 and $16.50USD/oz, while oil is up 1.17%, trading between $48.73 and $50.29.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive