USDCAD falls from 1.2772 to 1.2566 as oil recovery continues

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Monday, Feb. 2nd, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2605 - 1.2610 (AS AT 8:16AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2681	to	1.2744
	Europe:	1.2655	to	1.2772
	North America:	1.2566	to	1.2669

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2380	1.2503	1.2713	1.2800

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada RBC manufacturing PMI: 51.0 (prev. 53.9)

-U.S. personal income: 0.3% (exp. 0.2%)

-U.S. personal spending: -0.3% (exp. -0.2%)

-U.S. construction spending: 0.4% (exp. 0.7%)

-U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI: 53.5 (exp. 54.5)

-U.S. Core personal consumption expenditure price index: 1.3% (prev. 1.4%)

-U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI: 53.9 (prev. 53.9)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Feb. 3	Raw material / Industrial prod. Price	Factory orders
Feb. 4	Ivey PMI	ADP employment change, Markit services
		PMI, ISM non-mfg PMI
Feb. 5	Int’l merchandise trade	Trade balance, jobless claims
Feb. 6	Net employment change	Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate,
	Unemployment rate, participation	participation rate
	rate, building permits

On Friday, USDCAD traded from 1.2608 up to 1.2799 on weaker than expected Canadian and U.S. GDP data releases. An 8% surge in oil late in the North American session saw USDCAD fall back to 1.2660 before climbing to close the week at 1.2720. Overnight, the pairing tested 1.2772 but has fallen to 1.2566 on broad-based USD weakness and further strength in oil prices. USDCAD has bounced to 1.2610/15 but appears to be working lower having since fallen to 1.2590. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 0.59% and 0.18% respectively. EURCAD is down 0.70% trading between 1.4243 and 1.4476. GBPCAD is down 1.70% trading between 1.8912 and 1.9249. JPYCAD is down 0.80% trading between 0.01070 and 0.01089. Gold is down 0.34% trading between $1,266 and $1,283USD/oz, silver is up 0.19% trading between $17.01 and $17.33USD/oz, while oil is up 0.54%, trading between $46.69 and $50.25.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive