VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, Feb. 24th, 2015

USDCAD volatile in a 1.2552 - 1.2662 range as oil bounces and U.S. Fed pushes back rate hike

 

 

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2565 - 1.2570 (AS AT 8:20AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2564	to	1.2610
	Europe:	1.2598	to	1.2662
	North America:	1.2552	to	1.2639

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2420	1.2550	1.2660	1.2713

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. Markit services PMI: 57.0 (exp. 54.1)

-U.S. consumer confidence: 96.4 (exp. 99.5)

-U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index: 0 (exp. 6)

-U.S. Case Shiller home price indices: 4.5% (exp. 4.3%)

-U.S. Fed Yellen speech

-Bank of Canada Poloz speech TBA 11:00am

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Feb. 25		New home sales
Feb. 26	Consumer price index	CPI, durable goods, jobless claims
Feb. 27		GDP, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.2523 up to 1.2624 before falling back to 1.2550 as oil popped back above $50 on news regarding a possible emergency OPEC meeting. Oil could not hold above $50 and USDCAD drifted back to hold a 1.2570 – 1.2585 range for the balance of the session. Overnight, USDCAD climbed to 1.2662 as oil dipped below $49. The move higher was short-lived with USDCAD falling to 1.2552 this morning. Oil staged a move back above $50 as Libya shut down its largest oilfield. Also, broad- based USD weakness ensued after U.S. Fed President Yellen confirmed that the Fed would be patient in raising rates and would change their forward guidance before raising interest rates. It appears the most likely scenario now is for a possible hike in July or September. USDCAD has remained choppy having bounced to 1.2588, dipped again to 1.2552, and bounced back to 1.2600. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz will be speaking at 11:00am this morning and he may shed some light as to the Bank’s comfort level with recent Canadian data and the recovery in oil prices. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are both up 0.41%. EURCAD is unchanged trading between 1.4242 and 1.4331. GBPCAD is unchanged trading between 1.9409 and 1.9556. JPYCAD is down 0.45% trading between 0.01054 and 0.01059. Gold is unchanged trading between $1,190 and $1,204USD/oz, silver is up 0.74% trading between $16.18 and $16.50USD/oz, while oil is up 1.17%, trading between $48.73 and $50.29.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive