SDCAD falls from 1.2585 to 1.2410 as oil erases yesterday's losses
USDCAD spot rate: 1.2430 - 1.2435 (AS AT 8:27AM PST)
|
RANGES:
|
Asia:
|
1.2544
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to
|
1.2585
|
|
|
Europe:
|
1.2507
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to
|
1.2566
|
|
|
North America:
|
1.2410
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to
|
1.2531
|
Technical Support / Resistance:
|
S2
|
S1
|
R1
|
R2
|
|
1.2260
|
1.2350
|
1.2592
|
1.2645
|
Key Economic Data Releases:
-Canada International merchandise
trade: -$650 million (exp. -$1.2 billion)
-U.S. trade balance: -$46.56 billion (exp. -$38.00 billion)
-U.S. initial jobless claims:
278k (exp. 290k)
Key Event Calendar:
|
DATE
|
CANADA
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U.S.A.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Feb. 6
|
Net employment change
|
Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate,
|
|
|
Unemployment rate, participation
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participation rate
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|
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rate, building permits
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|
Yesterday, after having fallen from 1.2645 to 1.2353 on
Tuesday, USDCAD reversed course and climbed to 1.2592 before settling in a
1.2540/70 range for the balance of the day. Oil wiped its previous day’s gains
and fell nearly 7%. Overnight, the pairing was unable to break above 1.2592 (4TH failed attempt over the past two days)
and eased lower to 1.2507 as oil recovered. The pairing opened this morning’s
session at 1.2531 and dropped to 1.2470 after better than expected Canadian
trade data. The previous month’s deficit was also revised lower from $644
million to $335 million. USDCAD bounced to 1.2515 but then plunged to 1.2410 as
oil erased its losses from yesterday, now up 10% from the inter-day low. The
pairing has bounced slightly and is now holding near 1.2435. The CAD is the
best performing currency while the USD and the JPY are the worst performers.
There is speculation that the higher than expected U.S. trade balance (due to
increased imports / lower exports due to strong USD) may lead to a revised lower
4TH quarter GDP result.
Tomorrow, Canada is expected to add 4,500 jobs after losing 4,300 in December.
The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 6.7%. The U.S. is expected to add
235,000 jobs, down from the 252,000 added in December. The unemployment rate is
expected to hold steady at 5.6%. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 1.06%
and 0.80% respectively. EURCAD is down 0.35% trading between 1.4189 and 1.4339.
GBPCAD is down 0.50% trading between 1.8977 and 1.9148. JPYCAD is down 1.30%
trading between 0.01057 and 0.01073. Gold is down 0.25% trading between $1,258
and $1,274USD/oz, silver is down 1.70% trading between $16.94 and $17.50USD/oz,
while oil is up 5%, trading between $47.30 and $51.26.
Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet,
RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive
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