USDCAD climbs to 1.2624 before easing to 1.2565

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Monday, Feb. 23rd, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2568 - 1.2573 (AS AT 8:18AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2523	to	1.2561
	Europe:	1.2549	to	1.2612
	North America:	1.2568	to	1.2624

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2420	1.2520	1.2625	1.2713

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. existing home sales: 4.82 million (exp. 4.97 million)

-U.S. existing home sales change: -4.9% (exp. -0.8%)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Feb. 24	Bank of Canada speech	Markit services PMI, consumer confidence
Feb. 25		New home sales
Feb. 26	Consumer price index	CPI, durable goods, jobless claims
Feb. 27		GDP, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment

On Friday, USDCAD traded from 1.2498 down to 1.2422 before effectively erasing its weekly gains with a move up to 1.2565 driven by weak Canadian retail sales data. The pairing eased lower to 1.2510 and closed the week near 1.2525. After 3 straight weeks of gains, oil ended lower on the week after several failed attempts to sustain a break above $54/barrel. Also, the Baker Hughes oil rig count declined albeit at a slower pace. Overnight, USDCAD climbed to 1.2612 as oil remained under pressure down as much as 4.5% on the day. The pairing opened the North American session at 1.2587, climbed to 1.2624, and then fell back to 1.2570. Another attempt at 1.2600 failed at 1.2591 and we’ve fallen back to 1.2570 as oil recovers some of its earlier losses. There is speculation that the poor retail sales data could lead to another Bank of Canada interest rate cut on March 4TH. There is a Bank of Canada speech tomorrow that may shed some light as to the Bank’s comfort level with recent Canadian data and the recovery in oil prices. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down 0.15% and 0.21% respectively. EURCAD is unchanged trading between 1.4185 and 1.4300. GBPCAD is up 0.70% trading between 1.9276 and 1.9447. JPYCAD is up 0.45% trading between 0.01050 and 0.01060. Gold is unchanged trading between $1,191 and $1,210USD/oz, silver is up 1% trading between $16.11 and $16.62USD/oz, while oil is down 3%, trading between $48.69 and $50.96.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive