USDCAD remains range bound between 1.2448 - 1.2524
RANGES:
|
Asia:
|
1.2483
|
to
|
1.2524
|
Europe:
|
1.2468
|
to
|
1.2493
|
|
North America:
|
1.2448
|
to
|
1.2505
|
Technical Support / Resistance:
S2
|
S1
|
R1
|
R2
|
1.2350
|
1.2400
|
1.2550
|
1.2660
|
Key Economic Data Releases:
-U.S. GDP 4TH quarter annualized (2ND reading): 2.2% (exp. 2.1%)
-U.S. core personal consumption expenditure: 1.1% (exp. 1.1%)
-U.S. Chicago purchasing managers
index: 45.8 (exp. 58.0)
-U.S. pending home sales: 1.7%
(exp. 1.8%)
-U.S. consumer sentiment index:
95.4 (exp. 94.0)
Key Event Calendar:
DATE
|
CANADA
|
U.S.A.
|
Mar. 2
|
Current account Q4, RBC
|
Personal income / spending, Markit / ISM
|
manufacturing PMI
|
manufacturing PMI, construction spending
|
|
Mar. 3
|
GDP Q4
|
|
Mar. 4
|
Bank of Canada interest rate
|
ADP employment, ISM non-mfg PMI
|
Mar. 5
|
Ivey purchasing managers index
|
Jobless claims, factory orders
|
Mar. 6
|
Building permits, Int’l merchandise
|
Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, trade
|
trade
|
balance
|
Yesterday, USDCAD initially added to its weekly gains
trading from 1.2446 down to 1.2387 and then erased a good portion of its gains
by climbing to 1.2535 during the North American session. Oil was down over 6%
at one point but managed to pair about 50% of its losses. Overnight, USDCAD
trended lower on broad-based USD weakness reaching 1.2448 ahead of the U.S. GDP
data release. Despite a declining trend (3RD quarter GDP was 5%, while the preliminary 4th quarter was
2.6%) the USD recovered some of its earlier losses sending USDCAD back up to
1.2505. With month end flows and continued choppiness, USDCAD has since dipped
to 1.2455 followed by a return to 1.2510 despite a 2% rise in oil. The main
event risk next week comes Wednesday with the Bank of Canada interest rate
policy decision and on Friday with U.S. employment data. Currently, the TSX is
up 0.36% while the DJIA is down 0.12%. EURCAD is unchanged trading between
1.3953 and 1.4032. GBPCAD is up 0.20% trading between 1.9191 and 1.9315. JPYCAD
is down 0.25% trading between 0.01044 and 0.01050. Gold is up 0.55% trading
between $1,205 and $1,219USD/oz, silver is unchanged trading between $16.43 and
$16.70USD/oz, while oil is up 2%, trading between $48.69 and $49.51.
Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet,
RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive
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