USDCAD falls to 3 week low at 1.2428 and subsequently bounces to 1.2530

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2510 - 1.2515 (AS AT 8:19AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2504	to	1.2546
	Europe:	1.2472	to	1.2534
	North America:	1.2428	to	1.2530

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2350	1.2400	1.2617	1.2725

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. consumer price index m/m: 0.2% (exp. 0.2%) y/y: 0/.0% (exp. -0.1%)
-U.S. CPI ex food and energy m/m: 0.2% (exp. 0.1%) y/y: 1.7% (exp. 1.6%)
-U.S. housing price index: 0.3% (exp. 0.5%)

-U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI: 55.3 (exp. 54.7)

-U.S. new home sales: 0.539 million (exp. 0.470 million) % change: 7.8% (prev. 4.4%)

-U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing: -8 (prev. 0)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Mar. 25		Durable goods
Mar. 26	Bank of Canada Poloz speech	Markit services PMI
Mar. 27		GDP Q4, consumer sentiment index

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.2536 up to 1.2615 before falling to 1.2496. The pairing edged higher to 1.2546 in Asian trade on broad-based USD strength as China manufacturing data came in at an 11 month low and signaled economic contraction. The trend changed course in Europe with USDCAD falling to 1.2472 as oil traded over $48. U.S. headline CPI data was near expectation but the age component was weak. A quick USD sell-off saw USDCAD drop from 1.2510 to 1.2428 – a 3 week low. The move was short-lived with the pairing bouncing back to 1.2530. USDCAD has since eased to 1.2510. Over the past two months, USDCAD has tested the 1.2350 – 1.2400 “quadruple bottom” support area 4 times while recently testing a “double-top” resistance at 1.2835 on two occasions last week.

Sentiment in USCAD appears to be neutral with no clear upward or downward trend at the moment. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 0.75% and 0.14% respectively. EURCAD is down 0.30% trading between 1.3638 and 1.3739. GBPCAD is down 0.70%, trading between 1.8576 and 1.8733. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.01043 and 0.01047. Gold is up 0.14% trading between $1,185 and $1,195USD/oz., silver is up 0.32% trading between $16.83 and $17.05USD/oz., while oil is up 1% trading between $46.69 and $48.53.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Wednesday, Mar 18th, 2015

USDCAD spot rate:    1.2795 - 1.2800 (as at 7:45am PST)

 

Ranges:	Asia:	1.2765	to	1.2793
	Europe:	1.2751	to	1.2779
	North America:	1.2735	to	1.2819

 

 

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2492	1.2617	1.2798	1.30

 

 

 

Key Economic Data Releases:

CAD Wholesale Sales -3.1%   (exp. -0.8%)
US Fed Interest Rate Decision tba (11am)

Key Event Calendar:

Date	Canada	U.S.A.
Mar. 19 Mar. 20	CPI, retail sales	Current account(Q4), initial jobless claims

Canadian Wholesale Sales were the worst in 6 years, and oil prices continue their downward spiral. Despite this all eyes are on the US FED interest decision upcoming later this morning. The USD / Cad is still relatively flat and will probably remain this way for the rest of the morning with traders keeping a neutral position as protection from any Fed surprise comments.. The only notable movement in the currency pairings continues to be the British pound, down for a third straight day. The North American stock markets are all down again this morning. The TSX is down .33% while the Dow is .39% lower. EURCAD is up again by  .21% trading between 1.3538 and 1.3606. GBPCAD is down, by 0.49% trading between 1.8733 and 1.8915. JPYCAD is up 0.29% trading between 0.01053 and 0.01059. Gold is down 0.09% trading between $1,146 and $1,153USD/oz., silver is down 0.33% trading between $15.47 and $15.63USD/oz., while oil is down .47% trading between $42.06 and $42.96.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

USDCAD dips to 1.2422 before climbing to 1.2565 on weak Canadian retail sales

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Feb. 20th, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2510 - 1.2515 (AS AT 8:07AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2480	to	1.2498
	Europe:	1.2422	to	1.2487
	North America:	1.2443	to	1.2565

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2363	1.2420	1.2560	1.2713

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada retail sales: -2.0% (exp. -0.4%) ex autos: -2.3% (exp. -0.8%)

-U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI: 54.3 (exp. 53.6)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Feb. 23		Existing homes sales
Feb. 24	Bank of Canada speech	Markit services PMI, consumer confidence
Feb. 25		New home sales
Feb. 26	Consumer price index	CPI, durable goods, jobless claims
Feb. 27		GDP, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.2438 up to 1.2555 as oil prices were initially down 5% because of an early report by API crude oil inventory data that showed a buildup of 14 million barrels. EIA reported a much smaller inventory buildup at 8:00am sending oil prices back up and causing USDCAD to fall to 1.2475/80. The pairing remained in a 1.2480 – 1.2510 range for the balance of the session. Overnight, the commodity bloc (AUD, NZD, and CAD) were the best performing currencies and USDCAD dipped to 1.2422. The pairing bounced to 1.2465 ahead of the 5:30am Canadian retail sales data release. USDCAD quickly climbed to 1.2540 as retail sales missed estimates, followed by a pull-back to 1.2510. Another move higher stalled just above yesterday’s high (1.2555) at 1.2565 followed by another pull-back to 1.2510. There is speculation that the poor retail sales data could lead to another Bank of Canada interest rate cut on March 4TH. The EURO initially dipped 1.5 cents vs. the CAD only to gain nearly 2 cents because of an “administrative error” by Greece. Greece will in fact accept the bailout conditions agreed to by the previous government – a statement that had been omitted in an official document yesterday in ongoing negotiations between Greece and the European Union. Currently, the TSX is down 0.20% while the DJIA is unchanged. EURCAD is unchanged trading between 1.4058 and 1.4237. GBPCAD is unchanged trading between 1.9111 and 1.9293. JPYCAD is up 0.25% trading between 0.01048 and 0.01061. Gold is unchanged trading between $1,202 and $1,215USD/oz, silver is down 0.25% trading between $16.32 and $16.58USD/oz, while oil is unchanged, trading between $51.06.15 and $52.45.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, Feb. 17th, 2015

USDCAD retests February low of 1.2363 before rebounding to 1.2443 as oil slides

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2420 - 1.2425 (AS AT 8:12AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2441	to	1.2480
	Europe:	1.2363	to	1.2449
	North America:	1.2375	to	1.2443

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2265	1.2380	1.2535	1.2658

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities: $13.89 billion (prev. $1.83 billion)

-Foreign investment in Canadian securities: -$13.55 billion (prev. $4.30 billion)

-Canadian existing home sales: -3.1% (prev. -5.8%)

-U.S. NY Empire state manufacturing index: 7.78 (exp. 8.50)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Feb. 18	Wholesale sales	Building permits, housing starts, producer
		price index, industrial production
Feb. 19		Jobless claims, leading indicators,
		Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey
Feb. 20	Retail sales	Markit manufacturing PMI

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.2458 down to 1.2427 before turning higher during the North American session. With much of Canada and the U.S. on holiday, USDCAD remained confined to a 1.2460 / 80 range for much of the North American session. The down-trend from last week resumed once today’s Asian session got under way. The pairing broke below 1.2430 support overnight and continued lower towards 1.2363, just shy of the 1.2353 low from February 3RD. Oil quickly erased its gains falling from $53.54 down to $50.84 sending USDCAD back to 1.2443. Oil has since recovered to $51.72 with USDCAD tracking closely with a move back to 1.2405. Currently, the TSX is up 0.09% while the DJIA is down 0.18%. EURCAD is unchanged trading between 1.4096 and 1.4175. GBPCAD is down 0.50% trading between 1.8989 and 1.9161. JPYCAD is down 1% trading between 0.01041 and 0.01054. Gold is down 1.60% trading between $1,204 and $1,234USD/oz, silver is down 5% trading between $16.31 and $17.34USD/oz, while oil is down 2.8%, trading between $50.84 and $53.54.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive