Friday, February 13, 2015

Hollywood North Film Industry Booms Again, Weak Loonie Leads The Way



For the second year in a row, the North Shore has seen record-breaking film activity, based on film permits and revenues for the City and District of North Vancouver.
 
The city issued 77 film permits for feature films, TV shows, commercials, documentaries and music videos in 2014, up from 50 in 2013 and 40 in 2012. Revenues for the city from the permits amounted to $185,000.

The district meanwhile, had 189 permits spread over 77 productions, compared to 90 film shoots in 2013, but revenues hit $714,000 compared to $511,000 the year before. Among the noteworthy film shoots: Fifty Shades of Grey, Age of Adeline starring Blake Lively and Harrison Ford, Tim Burton’s Big Eyes and the famous Shaw fire log.

The area also saw its share of science fiction, fantasy and comic book adaptations that included Arrow, Falling Skies, The Returned, Supernatural, Once Upon a Time, The Flash, iZombie and the soon-to-shoot Deadpool starring Ryan Reynolds and his abs.

Though the Canadian dollar tumbling downward from parity is an obvious appeal to Hollywood productions, it’s just one factor in the larger equation that determines where film shoots go in the highly competitive industry, according to Richard Brownsey, president of Creative B.C., the provincial agency that promotes creative industries.

“People quite often go to the decline in the dollar, and a lower Canadian dollar does help production — there’s no question about that — but I think, fundamentally, the reason that we’re busy is because British Columbia is a really good place to film,” Brownsey said. Though B.C. still lags behind the eastern provinces and southern states when it comes to tax incentives, the province is known throughout the industry as having the talent and infrastructure to make it a safe bet for producers.

“The highest incentive does not necessarily mean the cheapest production. If you don’t have the infrastructure there, you’ve got to bring it in. If you have questions about whether you’re going to get your content delivered on time and on budget, that gets factored in,” he said. The industry has also been spurred by the region becoming a hub for animation, visual effects and post-production work, Brownsey added.

For North Shore Studios on Brooksbank Avenue, 2014 was a “decent but not exceptional” year as a couple of long-running TV series came to an end and it took some time to book new productions, according to Peter Leitch, studio president. But Leitch  said 2015 is shaping up to be another blockbuster year, as new productions are moving into town.

“In general, the climate is excellent right now with the dollar where it is,” Leitch said. “It’s always a pretty competitive business but we feel good about the environment right now.” Other draws making the Lower Mainland an attractive place to shoot include its year-round warm weather, diverse locations, proximity to Los Angeles and the presence of film schools like the Bosa Centre for Film and Animation at Capilano University.

As for rumours that The X-Files, will make a glorious return:
“I don’t think so but there’s lots of good stuff on its way,” Leitch said.

North Shore Studios employs about 1,000 workers. According to 2013 stats from Creative BC, there are more than 1,100 City of North Vancouver residents on film production payrolls. resulting in $26.5 million in taxable income.
 
Though it can be a tough slog and the hours are long, film work can provide a very good living, Leitch said.

Both North Vancouvers actively court film productions for the revenues and economic spinoffs they bring. West Vancouver, however, does not market itself as a filming destination and does not keep data on the number of productions.


Do you work in the film industry here in BC? Share your experiences with us in the comments below



Thursday, February 12, 2015

Mixed Signals

 
 
The USD ceded some ground to the other majors this week, in spite of a late rally. As you can see from the one day relative performance table, investors were caught leaning the wrong way ahead of the week’s main data release, Friday’s non-farm January payrolls report on the US labour market. The report smashed expectations as the economy added 257K jobs, far above the 230K that was expected. In addition, the November and December reports were revised up by 147K making it the strongest three months of jobs gains in 17 years. Not to be outshined, average hourly earnings surged from last month's disappointing -0.2% to a whopping 0.5%, which was the highest monthly jump in average hourly earnings since November 2008. However, on an annual basis the increase was a less impressive 2.2%. Nevertheless, these reports restored a large amount of faith in the US economic recovery. Sentiment had been firmly against the USD since the beginning of January as U.S. economic reports were sending mixed signals about the strength of the economy and the timing of the Fed’s first interest rate hike. Doubts about the Fed’s timing arose after disappointing December average hourly earnings and retail sales. Other reports adding to the discourse was the falling employment component in both the ISM Manufacturing report and the ISM Non-Manufacturing report and the 17.6% rise in layoff announcements in the Challenger Grey & Christmas reports.

 
Friday’s very strong labour market reports have put a June rate hike by the Fed back into the picture. This will allow the Fed to drop or dilute it reference about “patience” at its March meeting, which would lay the groundwork for an interest rate hike at its next meeting in June, which incidentally also includes a press conference. On the other hand, the Fed can certainly afford to remain patient before raising interest rates, given the global deflationary backdrop, the downward pull on inflation from low oil prices and the strong USD. But before we get to the next FOMC meeting on March 18th, the USD may come under pressure ahead of the release of the January FOMC minutes on February 19th and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual congressional testimony on monetary policy on February 24th.

 
Before we end this Dispatch, we would like to make two short points about the euro and CAD. The euro has been going back and forth within a 2 cent range on headlines about Greece and its solvency. One of our favorite sound bites this week came in an exchange with European Parliament President Martin Schulz and Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis. Schulz warned that Greece risks national bankruptcy if it continues down the path of non-agreement. Varoufakis’ response was to simply restate what he had previously said that Greece is already bankrupt. What you need to understand is that this is just plain old posturing and that the real negotiation will occur in the 11th hour. Greece needs about 10bln euros by the end of the month, but even this deadline may extend for another few months. Positive headlines will cause a short squeeze in the euro while negative headlines will cause the euro to sell off.


Friday, February 6, 2015

Canadian citizenships up for sale


 
Canadian “Cash for Citizenship “ program is being reignited, 500 applications from immigrant millionaires will have their opportunity to apply for citizenship by February 11th but only 60 will be approved.  The criterion requires immigrant applicants to invest at least $2 Million into the country in order to boost the Canadian economy.

Applicants must make a $2 Million dollar no guaranteed investment over 15 years into a fund operated by BDC Capital a government umbrella of Business Development Bank of Canada.

The government’s new program is a revamp of the old immigrant regulation previously “Under the former immigration investor program, immigrant investors had to invest $800,000 in Canada’s economy in the form of a repayable loan without meeting skills and abilities requirements of most of Canada’s economic immigration programs” the government announced. This new program announced last December has the South China Morning Post of Hong Kong calling it a “tiny scheme (that) would thwart 45,000 rich Chinese who were dumped from (the old) investor immigration que”.

In addition to the $2 Million dollar immigration investment applicants must undergo intensive background checks and scrutiny by private sector forensic accountants and auditors. The goal is for Citizenship and Immigration Canada to ensure that all wealth invested under this scheme will be lawfully procured.

Stringent checks and conditions have been introduced in an attempt to combat previous criticisms of allowing corrupt Chinese criminals escape China and seek refuge in Canada.
 
 

Thursday, February 5, 2015

Weekly FX Market Update - Cavalcade of Central Bank Easing

 


The USD turned in a mixed performance last week as the market continues to question whether the Federal Reserve is able to deliver its first interest rate hike by mid-year. Last week it was the strength of the economy and the Fed itself that interjected some uncertainty – U.S. GDP growth slowed to 2.6% in Q4 from 5% in Q3 while the FOMC statement upgraded its economic assessment it also recognized that international developments could affect their policy decisions in the future. The worst performer was the Swiss franc as on signs that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may have intervened. According to Swiss newspaper, Schweiz am Sonntag, the SNB was operating "a kind of minimum exchange rate against the euro" with a "corridor from 1.05 francs to 1.10 francs". So it would appear that even though the SNB was forced to abandon the cap it hasn’t completely abandoned trying to weaken its currency.


The cavalcade of monetary stimulus resumed last week as more central banks joined the procession. The central banks of Russia and Pakistan both surprised the markets with interest rate cuts. The central bank of Turkey signaled that it may cut rates next week during an emergency meeting while Hungary’s central bank turned dovish. We would like to say the Danish central bank surprised the markets by cutting interest rates to minus 0.5% from minus 0.35% but that would be untrue – the truth is that it is the bank’s third cut in less than two weeks. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand bucked the trend, holding rates steady, though it did warn that it would likely leave rates on hold for longer, which of course means that its next move would be a rate cut.


 
With countries around the world cutting interest rates and watching their currencies fall against the USD – where does this leave the so called "strong dollar" policy? The truth is a rising USD is no picnic for the U.S. economy as export growth will slow. With the Fed geared up to raise interest rates this trend will most certainly persist, so the question will be how and when will the U.S. government react.
 

Leave us a comment below, do you think the strong US dollar will continue to rise?



 
 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Thursday, Feb. 5th, 2015

SDCAD falls from 1.2585 to 1.2410 as oil erases yesterday's losses
USDCAD spot rate: 1.2430 - 1.2435 (AS AT 8:27AM PST)

RANGES:
Asia:
1.2544
to
1.2585
 
Europe:
1.2507
to
1.2566
 
North America:
1.2410
to
1.2531

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2
S1
R1
R2
1.2260
1.2350
1.2592
1.2645

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada International merchandise trade: -$650 million (exp. -$1.2 billion)
-U.S. trade balance: -$46.56 billion (exp. -$38.00 billion)
-U.S. initial jobless claims: 278k (exp. 290k)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE
CANADA
U.S.A.
 
 
 
Feb. 6
Net employment change
Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate,
 
Unemployment rate, participation
participation rate
 
rate, building permits
 

Yesterday, after having fallen from 1.2645 to 1.2353 on Tuesday, USDCAD reversed course and climbed to 1.2592 before settling in a 1.2540/70 range for the balance of the day. Oil wiped its previous day’s gains and fell nearly 7%. Overnight, the pairing was unable to break above 1.2592 (4TH failed attempt over the past two days) and eased lower to 1.2507 as oil recovered. The pairing opened this morning’s session at 1.2531 and dropped to 1.2470 after better than expected Canadian trade data. The previous month’s deficit was also revised lower from $644 million to $335 million. USDCAD bounced to 1.2515 but then plunged to 1.2410 as oil erased its losses from yesterday, now up 10% from the inter-day low. The pairing has bounced slightly and is now holding near 1.2435. The CAD is the best performing currency while the USD and the JPY are the worst performers. There is speculation that the higher than expected U.S. trade balance (due to increased imports / lower exports due to strong USD) may lead to a revised lower 4TH quarter GDP result. Tomorrow, Canada is expected to add 4,500 jobs after losing 4,300 in December. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 6.7%. The U.S. is expected to add 235,000 jobs, down from the 252,000 added in December. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.6%. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 1.06% and 0.80% respectively. EURCAD is down 0.35% trading between 1.4189 and 1.4339. GBPCAD is down 0.50% trading between 1.8977 and 1.9148. JPYCAD is down 1.30% trading between 0.01057 and 0.01073. Gold is down 0.25% trading between $1,258 and $1,274USD/oz, silver is down 1.70% trading between $16.94 and $17.50USD/oz, while oil is up 5%, trading between $47.30 and $51.26.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 
 
 

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Wednesday, Feb. 4th, 2015



After yesterday's decline from 1.2645 to 1.2353, USDCAD moves back to 1.2592
 
USDCAD spot rate: 1.2558 - 1.2563 (AS AT 8:07AM PST)

RANGES:
Asia:
1.2390
to
1.2444
 
Europe:
1.2408
to
1.2476
 
North America:
1.2440
to
1.2592

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2
S1
R1
R2
1.2260
1.2350
1.2592
1.2645

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada Ivey purchasing managers index: 45.4 (exp. 53.9)
-U.S. ADP employment change: 213k (exp. 225k)
-U.S. ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index: 56.7 (exp. 56.3)
-U.S. Markit services PMI: 54.2 (prev. 53.3)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE
CANADA
U.S.A.
 
 
 
Feb. 5
Int’l merchandise trade
Trade balance, jobless claims
Feb. 6
Net employment change
Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate,
 
Unemployment rate, participation
participation rate
 
rate, building permits
 

Yesterday, after climbing to 1.2645, USDCAD plunged to 1.2353 before bouncing to close the session near 1.2396. Since last Thursday, oil has gained nearly 25% causing a sharp 4.5 cent correction lower in USDCAD over the past 3 trading days. Overnight, USDCAD held a 1.2390 – 1.2476 range. The pairing opened this morning’s session at 1.2440 but has gapped higher after breaking above yesterday’s broken support level at 1.2503. The main catalyst is a 5% decline in oil and the 7:00am release of the Canadian Ivey purchasing managers index which was much weaker than expected. After reaching 1.2592, USDCAD has since fallen back towards 1.2540. Tomorrow, Canada’s trade deficit is expected to widen from $640 million to $1 billion. The U.S. trade deficit is expected to narrow from $39 billion to $38 billion. On Friday, Canada is expected to add 4,500 jobs after losing 4,300 in December. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 6.7%. The U.S. is expected to add 235,000 jobs, down from the 252,000 added in December. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.6%. Currently, the TSX is down 0.32% while the DJIA is up 0.18%. EURCAD is up 0.70% trading between 1.4220 and 1.4386. GBPCAD is up 2% trading between 1.8800 and 1.9190. JPYCAD is up 1.25% trading between 0.01053 and 0.01071. Gold is up 0.13% trading between $1,257 and $1,272USD/oz, silver is up 0.34% trading between $17.18 and $17.66USD/oz, while oil is down 5.2%, trading between $49.97 and $52.54.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 




Monday, February 2, 2015

USDCAD falls from 1.2772 to 1.2566 as oil recovery continues



VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Monday, Feb. 2nd, 2015

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2605 - 1.2610 (AS AT 8:16AM PST)

RANGES:
Asia:
1.2681
to
1.2744
 
Europe:
1.2655
to
1.2772
 
North America:
1.2566
to
1.2669

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2
S1
R1
R2
1.2380
1.2503
1.2713
1.2800

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada RBC manufacturing PMI: 51.0 (prev. 53.9)
-U.S. personal income: 0.3% (exp. 0.2%)
-U.S. personal spending: -0.3% (exp. -0.2%)
-U.S. construction spending: 0.4% (exp. 0.7%)
-U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI: 53.5 (exp. 54.5)
-U.S. Core personal consumption expenditure price index: 1.3% (prev. 1.4%)
-U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI: 53.9 (prev. 53.9)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE
CANADA
U.S.A.
 
 
 
Feb. 3
Raw material / Industrial prod. Price
Factory orders
Feb. 4
Ivey PMI
ADP employment change, Markit services
 
 
PMI, ISM non-mfg PMI
Feb. 5
Int’l merchandise trade
Trade balance, jobless claims
Feb. 6
Net employment change
Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate,
 
Unemployment rate, participation
participation rate
 
rate, building permits
 

On Friday, USDCAD traded from 1.2608 up to 1.2799 on weaker than expected Canadian and U.S. GDP data releases. An 8% surge in oil late in the North American session saw USDCAD fall back to 1.2660 before climbing to close the week at 1.2720. Overnight, the pairing tested 1.2772 but has fallen to 1.2566 on broad-based USD weakness and further strength in oil prices. USDCAD has bounced to 1.2610/15 but appears to be working lower having since fallen to 1.2590. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 0.59% and 0.18% respectively. EURCAD is down 0.70% trading between 1.4243 and 1.4476. GBPCAD is down 1.70% trading between 1.8912 and 1.9249. JPYCAD is down 0.80% trading between 0.01070 and 0.01089. Gold is down 0.34% trading between $1,266 and $1,283USD/oz, silver is up 0.19% trading between $17.01 and $17.33USD/oz, while oil is up 0.54%, trading between $46.69 and $50.25.
Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive