Meet your CSR: Q&A with Penny G.

You might recognize Penny from VBCE. Perhaps you've had the pleasure of having her serve you right before you took off for one of your eagerly anticipated vacations. Or maybe she provided you advice on how to help you save more money for your business. What you may not know are all the tiny details of why Penny is so special to all of her co-workers here at VBCE. 

In this month's post of 'Meet Your CSR' we asked Penny a few questions to help you get to know her better!

  

Tell us a little bit about yourself
My family and I immigrated to Canada in 2005 from Shanghai, China. My first job was working at the city broadcast station in my hometown when I was ten.

What thoughts come to mind when you tell people you work at VBCE?

It is a great company to work at! I literally work with my friends and mentors every day. We care for each other and we care for our customers too. 
 

What is your dream destination for a vacation?

At the moment, it would be Iceland.


What extra-curricular activities do you participate in?
I used to tutor mandarin during my spare time.   

Favorite song you would listen to on your dream vacation

"Amazing" by Sara Gazarek
 

If you could take one person on a dream vacation with you, who would it be?

It would be my mum.

Tell us about a stand out customer that you have previously serviced

I helped a couple from Singapore who were new to Vancouver and Canada. They were really anxious when they came to exchange for the first time because they are not sure how everything worked. After I explained to them about our rates and services, they were happy to know that we could meet their foreign exchange needs when they are away from home. I am glad we are able to help new immigrants like them to settle down into their new life faster and make them feel welcomed. 

Give us a Forex tip every savvy customer should know

If you have left over foreign currencies from your previous trips and you are not planning to go back to those countries, make sure to convert them back to Canadian or US dollars in a timely fashion. We won't be able to take old notes from our customers once the bills become outmoded.

Something  people do not know about me? 

I was never a workout person until recently I joined a part-time fitness and Yoga program at one of the centers near me. I am enjoying the sweaty workouts and challenges.

 

What is your favorite piece of bullion that you have ever come across

A customer recently sold us a 1oz. silver coin that is from the Republic of Marshall Islands and has a really cute Japanese Hachiko design on it.  
 

 

 

 

Is Deflation Scare Over?

　

The unexpected Tory victory in the UK general election catapulted the GBP to the top of the currency heap last week. The AUD was the second best performer helped by a shift in interest rate expectations to later in the year. The NZD was the only currency that shielded the USD by sliding into last place ahead of it. The latest employment and wage date; and the continued slump in dairy auction prices weighed heavily on the currency. Meanwhile, the closely watched U.S. employment and wage data did not offer a strong sign of a pick-up in the U.S. economy; helping extended the USD’s correction for a third week. The end result is that market watchers have pushed expectations of the Fed’s rate lift off from June to September.

The stunning victory by Prime Minister Cameron was shocking but it would have to take a back seat to the flash crash in the German bund market. Having fallen to just 0.05 % in mid-April, the benchmark 10-year German Bund yields shot as high as 0.78% intraday on Thursday, before easing again. This set off similar moves in the global bond market. Moves of this magnitude are extremely rare in government bond markets – rising yields can be a healthy development if the global economy is picking up speed, but it spells trouble ahead if they suddenly jump at a time of sluggish growth. Thus, the Deutsch Bund Kernschmelze (German bund meltdown) either signals that the threat of deflation has eased or that inflation is about to rise on top of a sluggish economy, which is characterised as stagflation.

Is the deflation scare over and are we now headed toward inflation? This may be the case, especially if we see what has transpired in the oil and copper market as of late. Since falling 60% between June and January to a six-year low of $45 a barrel, crude oil has posted a strong recovery gaining more than 30%. Copper is up close to 20% off its January lows which according to an old investor’s mantra means that the global economy is coming back to life – copper has a Ph.D. in economics because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy. Because of copper's widespread use in most sectors of the economy, demand for copper is often viewed as a reliable leading indicator of economic health. If we are moving away from deflation and into inflation then we should expect central banks to rein in stimulus and start to raise interest rates.

The only problem is that the current macro-economic back-drop doesn’t support this scenario. Media reports of market participants within the fixed income arena are blaming the meltdown on the lack of liquidity. This topic is more complex than we care to explain here but in a nutshell the lack of liquidity at times reflects changes in structure of the fixed income market due to the involvement of central bank buying for their QE programs. This may explain the violence of the move but perhaps the change in sentiment may actually reflect a realization of a bonafide Eurozone recovery. Having said this, the bond meltdown may also be reflecting the tenuous situation in the Greek default negotiations. The pressure is mounting and even though Greece was able to scrape together enough funds to make Monday’s 767 Million euro payment to the IMF it does not have enough funds to get through to the end of the month.

 

Meet your CSR: Q&A with Kathy T.

You might recognize Kathy from VBCE. Perhaps you've had the pleasure of having her serve you right before you took off for one of your eagerly anticipated vacations. Or maybe she provided you advice on how to help you save more money for your business. What you may not know are all the tiny details of why Kathy is so special to all of her co-workers here at VBCE. 

In this month's post of 'Meet Your CSR' we asked Kathy a few questions to help you get to know her better!

 

Tell us a little bit about yourself
I have over 30 years of Banking and Foreign Exchange experience. I am a people person. I consider myself a “Customer Service Specialist.”

What thoughts come to mind when you tell people you work at VBCE?

I am proud to represent a company that shares my enthusiasm for providing exceptional service and great value for my customer’s money. 

What is your dream destination for a vacation?

I am going on vacation to Scotland this summer!  More of Europe is a must! But I do dream of going on a Vancouver Canucks hockey road trip! 
 

What extra-curricular activities do you participate in?

I am a loyal fan and season ticket holder of the Vancouver Canucks!  I love shopping, searching for fun jewelry pieces.
 

Favorite song you would listen to on your dream vacation
I love the song “This Girl Is On Fire” by Alicia Keyes

If you could take one person on a dream vacation with you, who would it be?

I am very lucky to be travelling with my Sister, Daughter and Niece to Scotland.

Tell us about a stand out customer that you have previously serviced

I was helping a lady that was converting US cash to Canadian and she was taking it back to her Bank. She does this monthly. I offered her our Online service and uncovered that she also sends electronic transfers to both her daughters in the US and the UK. She came in to do a simple transaction and I was able to offer her a service that will save her valuable time and money. She was very happy!

Give us a Forex tip every savvy customer should know

We do sell a great deal of exotic currencies. I encourage my customers to take a small amount  to start out with and to bring US dollars with them as they can get a better exchange  rate there. Also, to spend all of the currency there as we buy it back at a lower rate.

Something  people do not know about me?
I am a very creative person. I like to paint and would like to design my own jewelry one day!

 

What is your favorite piece of bullion that you have ever come across

I am a big fan of the Silver Maple leaf coins. I am collecting all of the different themed sets. There is a beautiful Kilo RCM coin in our inventory. Tempting!!



Position Adjustment - Euro was the top performer last week, US keeps interest rates at its current level and this Friday's April US non-farm jobs report will be in focus

What a week! The euro was the top performer on the week with a gain of over 3% and at one point moved a whole four euros against the USD. Technically, the euro rally may have run its course giving up almost a full euro on Friday and after having met the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and coming within a whisker of its 100-day moving average. The price action in the euro last week caused clients, with euro exposure to their business, to call us with questions about what was happening. The simplest explanation is positioning. The euro has been the most heavily shorted currency in the futures market for some time now, so when everyone in the boat is leaning one way and a big wave hits the boat the result is that the wave redistributes the weight (position adjustment). Thus, the big move in the euro was due to a short squeeze as speculators bought the euro in order to exit their short trade and not due to a fundamental change in the prospects in the Eurozone.

 

The catalyst for the move was a combination of a poor reading for Q1 GDP and the FOMC announcement. The US Federal Reserve, as expected, kept interest rates at its current level, but offered little hints on the timing of its first rate hike in nearly a decade. What the Fed did do was to remove all calendar references on a potential window for raising its benchmark Fed Funds Rate making very clear that rate decision will be a data driven. Furthermore, the Fed said it will take into account labor market conditions, inflationary pressures, and expectations of international financial developments when it decides on the timing of a rate increase.

 

 

The latest reading of Q1 US GDP came in at 0.2% which essentially demonstrates that the economy stagnated in Q1, or to sugar coat it, the economy grew very, very, very slowly. This was a huge deceleration from the Q4 2014 when real GDP gained 2.2%. Economists on average were anticipating growth of 1% in Q1. How bad was it? Well, if it wasn’t for the biggest inventory build in history, which grew by $121.9 billion and merely remained flat, US Q1 GDP would not be 0.2%, but would be -2.6%.

 

Just like a year ago, many economists and investors are pointing to snowy winter weather as the root of the weakness. Other factors holding back growth this time around may have included the strong USD, pressure on the energy sector from lower oil prices, and dock worker strikes on the West Coast that disrupted that flow of trade. All of these excuses are what the Fed calls "transitory factors". Therefore, as long as inflation keeps moving to the Fed’s target and that the economy sees further improvement in the labor market then the Fed will be looking for an opportunity to raise interest rates. Having said this, this Friday’s April non-farm jobs report will be in focus. A strong report will keep a June rate hike as a possibility. A weak report would not only rule out a June rate hike, but would put into question a move in September as well.

 

 

The technical condition of the US dollar index is on much firmer ground after last week’s price action. The index has found support near the 50% Fibonacci retracement, the 100-day moving average, and the shelf of support which was carved out from mid-January to the end of February.

 

Furthermore, the RSI has turned up, the MACD looks to be making a bottom, and the full stochastics have crossed and turned up. The technical foot print makes us wonder if the chart is forecasting a good jobs number and thus a turn in the economic data, which dovetails nicely with the Fed’s transitory factors and the beginning of warmer weather.