VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, Mar 31st, 2015

USDCAD climbs to 1.2784 before reversing lower to 1.2660
on better than expected CDN GDP data

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2670 - 1.2675 (AS AT 8:24AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2672	to	1.2711
	Europe:	1.2708	to	1.2755
	North America:	1.2660	to	1.2784

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2350	1.2415	1.2784	1.2840

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada GDP (Jan): -0.1% (exp. -0.2%)

-U.S. Case Shiller home price indices y/y: 4.6% (exp. 4.5%)

-U.S. Chicago purchasing managers index: 46.3 (exp. 51.5)

-U.S. consumer confidence: 101.3 (exp. 96.0)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Apr. 1	RBC manufacturing PMI	ADP employment, Markit / ISM mfg. PMI
Apr. 2	Int’l merchandise trade	Trade balance, factory orders, jobless claims
Apr. 3	Good Friday	Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate

Yesterday, the uptrend in USDCAD continued after the large reversal from Friday. USDCAD climbed from 1.2596 up to 1.2705 and held near session highs for the balance of the day. Oil fell back below $48 while Bank of Canada Governor Poloz warned that “the first quarter of 2015 will look atrocious.” Overnight, USDCAD climbed to 1.2755 and extended up to 1.2784 earlier this morning ahead of the Canadian GDP data. January data showed that GDP contracted by 0.1%, not as bad as the market had anticipated. USDCAD initially dropped to 1.2730 before finding some support but has subsequently fallen to 1.2660. Oil has bounced from overnight lows and is back above $48. Also, risk aversion flows have subsided as European and North American indices pare losses.

The GBP is the best performing currency with the CAD a close second. U.K. 4TH quarter GDP came in higher than expected at 3.0%. On Friday, the U.S. is expected to add 242,000 jobs after adding 295,000 the prior period. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.5%. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down 0.11% and 0.29% respectively. EURCAD is down 1% trading between 1.3588 and 1.3760. GBPCAD is up 0.20%, trading between 1.8764 and 1.8914. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.01055 and 0.01066. Gold is up 0.30% trading between $1,179 and $1,191USD/oz., silver is up 0.50% trading between $16.46 and $16.84USD/oz., while oil is down 1% trading between $47.31 and $48.70.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

Meet your CSR: Q&A with Amanda C.

 

You might recognize Amanda from VBCE. Perhaps you've had the pleasure of having her serve you right before you took off for one of your eagerly anticipated vacations. Or maybe she provided you advice on how to help you save more money for your business. What you may not know are all the tiny details of why Amanda is so special to all of her co-workers here at VBCE. 

In this month's post of 'Meet Your CSR' we asked Amanda a few questions to help you get to know her better!

 

Tell us a little bit about yourself
I was born and raised in Hong Kong, and came to Canada in 2007 for University. 
 

What thoughts come to mind when you tell people you work at VBCE?

We offer one of the most competitive rates in town!

 

What is your dream destination for a vacation?

Santorini, Greece! 

 

What extra-curricular activities do you participate in?

I enjoy playing the piano and drawing in my free time. 

 

Favorite song you would listen to on your dream vacation

That would be a Cantonese song by Eason Chan - "Triumph in the Skies"

 

 

If you could take one person on a dream vacation with you, who would it be?

It would have to be my boyfriend

 

Tell us about a stand out customer that you have previously serviced

I remember an elementary teacher once came in to buy more than 20 different South American currencies as a teaching tool for her students. The kids must have been fascinated!

 

Give us a Forex tip every savvy customer should know

If you use your Canadian credit card overseas, they'll charge you the bank exchange rates (which are bad) PLUS a 'foreign currency transaction' fee. Only use it for emergency.

 

What is your favorite piece of bullion that you have ever come across

I really like the 5 oz Gold Bar from Swiss Pamp

 

Tell us something about yourself that might surprise some people
I am, and always will be, a die-hard Disney fan. Did I mention I like to read manga too?

Patience is out the window

Last week the US Federal Reserve removed the word "patience" from their statement with regards to interest rate hikes in the future indicating that they may raise rates sooner than expected. However, they also leave in caveat to further evaluate the economic conditions that let that guide their policy "Even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."

Since the announcement the US dollar has lost 2-3% against many of the major currencies contrary the fact the interest rates may rise. What does this mean? Has the market lost faith in the FED guiding policy to an improved economy? One interesting thing to consider is that 90% of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg assumed that the FED would remove "patience" from their policy. So, even though the consensus anticipated the change, the currency market still had some of the most volatility since the "fat finger" flash crash in 2010. Furthermore, much of the fundamental economic data out of the United States is more promising that many of the major currencies that it lost ground to.

 

 

 

EUR/USD finally had some relief from the free fall of the last few months and hit a high of over 1.10 while settling back to 1.0650 before the week ended. The Yen dropped to a three week low at 119.80 while the USD/CHF fell almost 3% (0.9750). That said, the CHF has been so strong as of late, luxury Swiss watch marker Tag Heuer had to drop or freeze prices in many markets to help consumers endure the relative weakness of their currencies.

 

 

 

USDCAD falls to 3 week low at 1.2428 and subsequently bounces to 1.2530

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2510 - 1.2515 (AS AT 8:19AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2504	to	1.2546
	Europe:	1.2472	to	1.2534
	North America:	1.2428	to	1.2530

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2350	1.2400	1.2617	1.2725

Key Economic Data Releases:

-U.S. consumer price index m/m: 0.2% (exp. 0.2%) y/y: 0/.0% (exp. -0.1%)
-U.S. CPI ex food and energy m/m: 0.2% (exp. 0.1%) y/y: 1.7% (exp. 1.6%)
-U.S. housing price index: 0.3% (exp. 0.5%)

-U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI: 55.3 (exp. 54.7)

-U.S. new home sales: 0.539 million (exp. 0.470 million) % change: 7.8% (prev. 4.4%)

-U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing: -8 (prev. 0)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Mar. 25		Durable goods
Mar. 26	Bank of Canada Poloz speech	Markit services PMI
Mar. 27		GDP Q4, consumer sentiment index

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.2536 up to 1.2615 before falling to 1.2496. The pairing edged higher to 1.2546 in Asian trade on broad-based USD strength as China manufacturing data came in at an 11 month low and signaled economic contraction. The trend changed course in Europe with USDCAD falling to 1.2472 as oil traded over $48. U.S. headline CPI data was near expectation but the age component was weak. A quick USD sell-off saw USDCAD drop from 1.2510 to 1.2428 – a 3 week low. The move was short-lived with the pairing bouncing back to 1.2530. USDCAD has since eased to 1.2510. Over the past two months, USDCAD has tested the 1.2350 – 1.2400 “quadruple bottom” support area 4 times while recently testing a “double-top” resistance at 1.2835 on two occasions last week.

Sentiment in USCAD appears to be neutral with no clear upward or downward trend at the moment. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 0.75% and 0.14% respectively. EURCAD is down 0.30% trading between 1.3638 and 1.3739. GBPCAD is down 0.70%, trading between 1.8576 and 1.8733. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.01043 and 0.01047. Gold is up 0.14% trading between $1,185 and $1,195USD/oz., silver is up 0.32% trading between $16.83 and $17.05USD/oz., while oil is up 1% trading between $46.69 and $48.53.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

 

Netanyahu Soundly Defeats Chief Rival in Israeli Elections

 

 

Prime Minister Netanyahu Soundly celebrates

his 4th term re-election

 

TEL AVIV — After a bruising campaign focused on his failings, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel won a clear victory in Tuesday’s elections and seemed all but certain to form a new government and serve a fourth term, though he offended many voters and alienated allies in the process. READ MORE HERE.

 

 

 

 

US FOMC Announcement

Fed Drops Patient Stance
Opening Door to June Rate Increase

 

 

 

 

 

“Just because we removed the word patient from the statement doesn’t mean
we are going to be impatient,”

Chair Janet Yellen said in a press conference Wednesday in Washington.

 

Click here for the full article

 

 

 

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Wednesday, Mar 18th, 2015

USDCAD spot rate:    1.2795 - 1.2800 (as at 7:45am PST)

 

Ranges:	Asia:	1.2765	to	1.2793
	Europe:	1.2751	to	1.2779
	North America:	1.2735	to	1.2819

 

 

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2492	1.2617	1.2798	1.30

 

 

 

Key Economic Data Releases:

CAD Wholesale Sales -3.1%   (exp. -0.8%)
US Fed Interest Rate Decision tba (11am)

Key Event Calendar:

Date	Canada	U.S.A.
Mar. 19 Mar. 20	CPI, retail sales	Current account(Q4), initial jobless claims

Canadian Wholesale Sales were the worst in 6 years, and oil prices continue their downward spiral. Despite this all eyes are on the US FED interest decision upcoming later this morning. The USD / Cad is still relatively flat and will probably remain this way for the rest of the morning with traders keeping a neutral position as protection from any Fed surprise comments.. The only notable movement in the currency pairings continues to be the British pound, down for a third straight day. The North American stock markets are all down again this morning. The TSX is down .33% while the Dow is .39% lower. EURCAD is up again by  .21% trading between 1.3538 and 1.3606. GBPCAD is down, by 0.49% trading between 1.8733 and 1.8915. JPYCAD is up 0.29% trading between 0.01053 and 0.01059. Gold is down 0.09% trading between $1,146 and $1,153USD/oz., silver is down 0.33% trading between $15.47 and $15.63USD/oz., while oil is down .47% trading between $42.06 and $42.96.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive