VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, Mar 31st, 2015

USDCAD climbs to 1.2784 before reversing lower to 1.2660
on better than expected CDN GDP data

USDCAD spot rate: 1.2670 - 1.2675 (AS AT 8:24AM PST)

RANGES:	Asia:	1.2672	to	1.2711
	Europe:	1.2708	to	1.2755
	North America:	1.2660	to	1.2784

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2	S1	R1	R2
1.2350	1.2415	1.2784	1.2840

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Canada GDP (Jan): -0.1% (exp. -0.2%)

-U.S. Case Shiller home price indices y/y: 4.6% (exp. 4.5%)

-U.S. Chicago purchasing managers index: 46.3 (exp. 51.5)

-U.S. consumer confidence: 101.3 (exp. 96.0)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE	CANADA	U.S.A.
Apr. 1	RBC manufacturing PMI	ADP employment, Markit / ISM mfg. PMI
Apr. 2	Int’l merchandise trade	Trade balance, factory orders, jobless claims
Apr. 3	Good Friday	Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate

Yesterday, the uptrend in USDCAD continued after the large reversal from Friday. USDCAD climbed from 1.2596 up to 1.2705 and held near session highs for the balance of the day. Oil fell back below $48 while Bank of Canada Governor Poloz warned that “the first quarter of 2015 will look atrocious.” Overnight, USDCAD climbed to 1.2755 and extended up to 1.2784 earlier this morning ahead of the Canadian GDP data. January data showed that GDP contracted by 0.1%, not as bad as the market had anticipated. USDCAD initially dropped to 1.2730 before finding some support but has subsequently fallen to 1.2660. Oil has bounced from overnight lows and is back above $48. Also, risk aversion flows have subsided as European and North American indices pare losses.

The GBP is the best performing currency with the CAD a close second. U.K. 4TH quarter GDP came in higher than expected at 3.0%. On Friday, the U.S. is expected to add 242,000 jobs after adding 295,000 the prior period. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.5%. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down 0.11% and 0.29% respectively. EURCAD is down 1% trading between 1.3588 and 1.3760. GBPCAD is up 0.20%, trading between 1.8764 and 1.8914. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.01055 and 0.01066. Gold is up 0.30% trading between $1,179 and $1,191USD/oz., silver is up 0.50% trading between $16.46 and $16.84USD/oz., while oil is down 1% trading between $47.31 and $48.70.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive