Wednesday, March 4, 2015

VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Wednesday, Mar 4th, 2015


USDCAD falls from 1.2544 down to 1.2425
on neutral Bank of Canada





USDCAD spot rate: 1.2425 - 1.2430 (AS AT 8:30AM PST)

RANGES:
Asia:
1.2481
to
1.2507
 
Europe:
1.2493
to
1.2534
 
North America:
1.2421
to
1.2544

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2
S1
R1
R2
1.2350
1.2430
1.2565
1.2660

Key Economic Data Releases:

-Bank of Canada interest rate announcement: unchanged at 0.75%
 http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/03/fad-press-release-2015-03-04/
-U.S. ADP employment change: 212k (exp. 220k)
-U.S. Markit services PMI: 57.1 (exp. 54.8)
-U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index: 56.9 (exp. 56.5)

Key Event Calendar:

DATE
CANADA
U.S.A.
 
 
 
Mar. 5
Ivey purchasing managers index
Jobless claims, factory orders
Mar. 6
Building permits, Int’l merchandise
Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, trade
 
trade
balance

Yesterday, USDCAD traded from 1.2543 down to 1.2432 before climbing to 1.2495 late in the North American session. Canadian 4TH quarter GDP was much stronger than expected including a 0.4% upward revision to 3RD quarter GDP. Just prior to the Bank of Canada announcement at 7:00am this morning, USDCAD climbed to 1.2544 despite oil prices approaching $51.

The Bank kept its key rate unchanged as was widely expected but the tone of the statement was neutral rather than dovish. “The Bank continues to expect that most of the negative impact from lower oil prices will appear in the first half of 2015, although it may be even more front-loaded than projected in January.” USDCAD has fallen to 1.2421/26 thus far while EURCAD has fallen more than two cents to 1.3750, its lowest level in almost 1 year. Despite oil inventories coming in at +10.3 million barrels vs exp. 4.0 million barrels which sent oil from $51 down to $49.61, the CAD continues to be the best performing currency today. On Friday, the U.S. is expected to add 240,000 new jobs, down from 257,000 the previous month.

The unemployment rate is expected to fall from 5.7% to 5.6%. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down 0.69% and 0.61% respectively. EURCAD is down 1.50% trading between 1.3760 and 1.3978. GBPCAD is down 1.50% trading between 1.8972 and 1.9232. JPYCAD is down 0.47% trading between 0.01038 and 0.01048. Gold is down 0.22% trading between $1,198 and $1,209USD/oz, silver is down 0.83% trading between $16.09 and $16.38USD/oz, while oil is down 1.37%, trading between $49.61 and $51.14.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

 

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